Taiwanese experts: China's President Xi will ask Trump to oppose Taiwan independence

Taiwanese experts say China's President Xi Jinping will use the upcoming APEC summit meeting in S. Korea to press US President Donald Trump to formally oppose Taiwan independence.

China regards self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province destined to come under Beijing’s control, and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification.

The anticipated Trump-Xi meeting has raised concern in Taipei that Washington could soften its stance on Taiwan in exchange for economic or strategic concessions from Beijing.

The Director-General of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB), Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥), stated that Taiwan would be on the agenda at the Trump-Xi meeting.

Tsai was invited to attend a special report by the Legislative Yuan's (Taiwan's legislature) Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee on the 28th. Speaking to the media before the meeting, he stated that the Trump-Xi summit would touch upon some structural issues, such as national security and technology control, and would also touch upon geopolitics, "including the Taiwan issue."

Before departing for his Asia trip, Washington on Oct. 24, President Trump said that he “will be talking about Taiwan,” and expressed “a lot of respect for Taiwan.”

Professor Ho Chih-yung (何志勇), a political scientist at the Center of General Education at Tsinghua University, told TCN that President Trump’s expression of “respect” for Taiwan in this context raises questions about his intentions, since the Taiwan issue is not directly related to the focus of APEC, and US‑China trade disputes are not centered on Taiwan.

Ho said Beijing has repeatedly sent signals urging Washington to commit to opposing Taiwan independence, a stance Washington has never formally adopted. It is possible that Trump could accommodate China on this point during the meeting, he added.



US position on Taiwan’s status will be a key focus

Liao Ming-hui (廖明輝), a research associate at Taiwan's Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, said that Trump might accept China's demand to change the US statement from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence" in exchange for Chinese commitments on purchases, investment guarantees, and cooperation in areas like fentanyl.

Trump under pressure

Professor Ho believes Trump is under greater pressure. He said the US faces domestic economic challenges such as inflation, while mainland China, as an authoritarian regime, can make its economic indicators appear favorable.

Combined with next year’s US midterm elections and numerous constitutional interpretation cases currently being appealed to the federal courts, these factors intensify the pressure on Trump, Ho noted.

Ho stated that these factors could prompt Trump to try to secure as many concessions as possible in the current talks with China.

Professor Chi Ho-chun (紀和均) of Taiwan's Graduate Institute of National Policy and Public Affairs at National Chung Hsing University expressed a similar view.

Chi told TCN that a likely scenario in the Trump-Xi meeting is that Xi will raise the agenda, requesting the US to switch its position from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence," a goal the CCP has pursued for more than a decade.

Professor Ho Chih-yung agreed that it is very likely that Xi will request Trump to change the US stance to "opposing Taiwan independence," but he noted that even if Trump did express opposition to Taiwan independence, it might ultimately amount to mere "lip service."

He said the US has consistently opposed any unilateral change to the cross-Strait status quo, and opposing Taiwan independence would be a change to that status quo.

Professor Chi, however, offered a different view, stating that “Trump is unlikely to give Xi a direct answer.”

US support for peaceful unification would trouble Taiwan

RAND’s recent report “Stabilizing the U.S.-China Rivalry” suggested that the US should provide incentives for Beijing to pursue gradual approaches toward unification. 

Chi added that if the US shifted its position to support for peaceful unification with China, it would represent significant diplomatic harm to Taiwan.