Taiwan did not come up in Trump-Xi talks, says Trump

Taiwan was not mentioned during a bilateral meeting held by US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).

US President Donald Trump held a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30. Speaking to the media after the event, Trump stated that the U.S. and China would sign a trade agreement "pretty soon."

When asked whether Taiwan was raised in the talks, Trump replied, "It never came up."

China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control, but Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) sees itself as a sovereign state with its own constitution and democratically elected government.

What did come up in the talks?

Trump said that the US would lower tariffs on China, while China would start buying large quantities of soybeans, resolve the rare earth trade issue, and agreed to intensify efforts against the illegal fentanyl trade.

Trump announced he would visit China in April next year. The Chinese Foreign Ministry appeared to acknowledge the planned trip in a statement issued after the meeting.

China's state media, Xinhua News Agency, released a press dispatch reporting on the Trump-Xi meeting. The report quoted Xi Jinping as stating, "The economic and trade teams of the two countries exchanged in-depth views on important economic and trade issues and reached a consensus on resolving the issues."  

No news is good news

Professor Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁) from the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University, told TCN, "We did not want the Taiwan issue to become a focal point of this Trump-Xi summit, nor was it necessary." People were on high alert before the meeting, he added.

Wang continued, "Trump's claim that Taiwan was not mentioned is a relatively positive outcome for Taiwan, as it avoids a situation where the G2 major powers co-manage Indo-Pacific affairs or Taiwan. For the time being, this is a good thing for Taiwan."

Professor Li Da-jung (李大中), Director of Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, told TCN it is possible that neither side raised the question of Taiwan. It's also possible that Xi Jinping raised it but stuck to a prepared script, while Trump did not offer a specific response, he added.

Li said, "I believe US officials may have specifically reminded Trump about the importance and sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, and there was perhaps a mutual agreement before the meeting not to discuss it this time."

Liao Hsiao-chuan (廖小娟), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, told TCN, "I have always believed that the Taiwan issue would likely not be on the table."

"It was unlikely that China would bring up Taiwan because it has little to offer in exchange, while for the United States, there is no need to raise it since there are other, more pressing matters, such as AI chips and TikTok," he added.



Taiwan may surface during Trump's China visit

While Trump said Taiwan was not mentioned during that summit, it could resurface if Trump visits China in April next year.

Professor Li said that if Trump visits China, it is likely that Beijing will raise the Taiwan.

"For Beijing," Li added, "even the smallest change in Trump’s tone or language that brings him closer to China’s stance on Taiwan would be seen as a sign of progress."

Professor Wang thinks it's certain that Taiwan will come up during Trump's scheduled April visit. Wang said, "If Trump visits China next April, it will be impossible for Xi Jinping not to raise the question of Taiwan."

Wang pointed to former U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2014 visit to China, during which he and Xi Jinping dined at Beijing’s Zhongnanhai government compound. While introducing the site’s history, Xi noted that the Kangxi Emperor of the Qing Dynasty had once studied there and devised a national strategy to suppress domestic unrest and reclaim Taiwan.

Xi's history lesson was widely interpreted to be an analogy to Taiwan’s modern-day relationship with China.

Professor Liao, however, suggested that the Taiwan issue may not surface so soon.

She said, "I believe both sides will work toward negotiating a deal that allows the US and China to save face." Given this objective, it will be difficult for them to reach an agreement on the Taiwan issue, she added.

Liao said, "Trump also faces domestic pressure in the United States, so a major concession on Taiwan is unlikely, as it would not align with the image he wants to project."

Taiwan may not come up in discussions soon, since any major change will depend on how the first-stage trade agreement negotiations conclude and whether the current tensions can be genuinely eased and resolved, she added.

Taiwan as a bargaining chip

Professor Li suggested that Taiwan cannot completely let down its guard. "There are already many dynamic developments between Taiwan and the United States alone," he said. "When combined with the broader framework and atmosphere of U.S.–China relations, Taiwan must pay close attention to changes in U.S.–China ties," he added.

Professor Liao said that because President Trump is business-minded and profit-driven, he will have important bargaining chips, such as Taiwan in hand, and is unlikely to give them up easily.

Trump's calculus will depend on what conditions China can still offer the United States, she added.