Taiwan: A Pivotal Jewel in the Crown of Global Stability

Taiwan is a vital linchpin in the first island chain, linking Japan to the north and the Philippines to the south. Douglas MacArthur, then the commander of the United States Far East command, was known to say that if the Communists were to gain control of Formosa, it would be like giving them an unsinkable aircraft carrier and submarine base—perfectly positioned to support Soviet offensive operations and to block any U.S. counterattacks launched from Okinawa or the Philippines.

MacArthur viewed Formosa as a critical strategic asset, warning that its loss to Communist control would severely compromise U.S. military positioning in the Western Pacific. Taiwan’s strategic importance has grown increasingly prominent, given China’s rapid rise and regional ambitions.

Taiwan’s security is not only vital to the survival of its democracy. It also serves as a litmus test for resisting the expansion of China’s sphere of influence and preserving the U.S.-led peace order in East Asia.

China has never renounced the use of force to annex Taiwan. It continues to pursue its objectives through military exercises, gray zone tactics, united front operations aimed at dividing Taiwan internally, and diplomatic pressure to isolate it internationally.

Since 2016, Chinese military aircraft and vessels have conducted large-scale and frequent incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone), crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, and circumnavigated the island in a form of brinkmanship aimed at pressuring Taiwan. Following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on August 2–3, 2022, China launched large-scale military exercises and missile launches, aiming to intimidate the Taiwanese public and deter further U.S.-Taiwan diplomatic engagement.

Since Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party was elected president on January 13, 2024, thousands of Chinese military aircraft, naval vessels and coast guard ships have routinely conducted sorties and patrols near Taiwan each year. This activity demostrates China’s compellence strategy through aggressive militarism and coercive intimidation.

China’s attempt to subjugate Taiwan is not merely about reclaiming lost territory; more importantly, by gaining control of Taiwan, China aims to establish itself as the regional hegemon in East Asia. Therefore, defending Taiwan not only guarantees that Taiwanese people can live under a free and democratic system, protected from persecution and oppression by China’s totalitarian regime, but also enables Taiwan to make meaningful contributions to the global free economy and technological advancement.

Taiwan has been playing a pivotal role in the global technology and trade ecosystem, particularly in the semiconductor industry, maritime shipping routes, and the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain. In the semiconductor sector, Taiwan is indispensable. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductor chips through foundries, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) alone accounting for approximately 60% of the global market. Taiwan is even more dominant in advanced process nodes such as 5nm and 3nm technologies, where it controls over 90% of global output.

Taiwan’s strategic geographic location also makes the Taiwan Strait one of the most vital shipping corridors in the world. It is estimated that 50% of global container ships transit through waters near Taiwan, including the Taiwan Strait and Bashi Channel.

Furthermore, approximately 15–17% of the world’s energy shipments—especially crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG)—pass through these routes en route to major East Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, and China. Any disruption in this maritime corridor could cause serious disturbances to global trade and energy markets.

Taiwan is equally central to the global AI supply chain. Nearly all of NVIDIA’s cutting-edge AI chips are manufactured by TSMC using its advanced semiconductor technologies.

Taiwan also leads in high-end chip packaging, including CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate), which is essential for AI acceleration. Moreover, Taiwan-based manufacturers collectively assemble over 90% of the world’s AI servers. Taiwan holds a pivotal role as a jewel in the crown of the global technology supply chain.

President Donald Trump authorized the highest volume of arms sales to Taiwan in the history of the United States during his first term, reflecting his profound acknowledgment of Taiwan’s strategic significance to the nation. In parallel, President Trump pursued a strategy of strategic ambiguity in addressing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

When asked by a reporter whether China would refrain from using force against Taiwan during his presidency, Trump declined to answer directly. He said he did not wish to trap himself into a firm commitment.

Strategic ambiguity, in this context, refers to a probabilistic commitment — a deliberate effort by the defending power, in this case the United States, to maintain uncertainty over whether it would intervene militarily. This ambiguity is intended to deter China from initiating aggression while also discouraging Taiwan from making provocative moves, such as declaring formal independence.

The U.S. bolsters Taiwan’s self-defense through arms sales and maintains the possibility of military intervention without offering explicit guarantees. Simultaneously, it does not support Taiwan’s independence and aims to avoid being drawn into a conflict triggered by unilateral actions from either side.

Drawing on his background in business and negotiations, President Trump consistently avoids revealing his strategic intentions. He appears to view uncertainty as a tool for leverage.

During his presidential campaign, Trump remarked in an interview that military force might not be necessary to deter a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, claiming that “President Xi respects me, and he knows I’m a little crazy.” This comment reflects Trump’s belief in the power of personal diplomacy and strategic unpredictability as tools of deterrence.

Compared to President Trump’s strategy of strategic ambiguity, Secretary of State Mark Rubio places greater emphasis on elements of strategic clarity. He stated in a media interview that America’s commitment to Taiwan has always been clear, as outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, adding that the U.S. firmly opposes any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo through force or coercion.

In short, while the United States maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan’s defense, Secretary Rubio underscores the importance of strategic clarity by clearly opposing any use of force by China to alter the cross-Strait status quo. Secretary Rubio stressed that the best way to prevent conflict in the Taiwan Strait is through credible American military strength and a sustained U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific region to deter China’s rising threats.

Rubio elaborated that in order to deter China from initiating aggression against Taiwan, it is essential to ensure that the strategic benefits of such an action are outweighed by the costs. Rubio’s logic involves making any move toward forceful unification prohibitively expensive—through a combination of Taiwan’s own robust self-defense capabilities, which increase the military difficulty and buy critical time, and a broader, credible regional deterrent posture maintained not only by the United States but also by key allies such as Japan and other international partners.

Simply put, the U.S. will not pursue strategic retrenchment in the Indo-Pacific. Instead, the United States’ top priority remains strengthening Taiwan’s defensive capabilities and, in coordination with its Indo-Pacific allies, deterring any Chinese attempt at unification by force.

On May 31, 2025, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivered a public address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, reaffirming Washington’s commitment to regional security. In his remarks, Hegseth warned that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is actively building the military capabilities required for an invasion of Taiwan, conducting daily training exercises and rehearsing what he described as preparations for the “real deal.”

Hegseth emphasized that the threat posed by China is not only real but potentially imminent. Hegseth also echoed President Trump’s firm position, stating that communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch.

He pledged that the United States, together with its allies and defense partners, would present a powerful and united shield of deterrence to prevent any such aggression. Hegseth’s reference to President Trump’s declaration that “China will not invade Taiwan on his watch” reflects the re-emergence of a Trump-era deterrence posture, which relies heavily on projecting strength and unpredictability. This demonstrates Trump’s broader foreign policy approach: purposeful strategic ambiguity (a term defined by current White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt)—a reversal from traditional strategic ambiguity.

Admiral Sam Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, testified before the Senate that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly increased its pressure on Taiwan through multi-domain operations, including military threats, cognitive warfare, cyberattacks, and economic coercion. Over the past year, the intensity of PLA military activities around Taiwan has surged by 300%, including frequent incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and crossings of the median line in the Taiwan Strait.

According to Paparo, these actions are not mere exercises. He believes they are rehearsals for an actual military invasion aimed at annexing Taiwan by force.

The year 2027 is often regarded as a critical deadline for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. However, Paparo clarified that 2027 should not be seen as a deadline to act but as a target date to be fully prepared by.

Whether the United States would intervene if China invades Taiwan—and whether U.S. involvement would be the decisive factor in such a war—has long been a subject of intense debate. However, in recent years, there has been a clear shift and enhancement in America’s Taiwan Strait strategy.

The U.S. could adopt a hellscape approach, using drones and unmanned vessels to destroy Chinese amphibious landing ships, or employing multi-domain operations, such as deploying bombers to strike critical Chinese military facilities. Similar to how the U.S. used B-2 bombers to target Iranian nuclear sites, such actions could be carried out without deploying naval or ground forces, allowing the U.S. to confront China without a full-scale troop commitment.

Ultimately, Taiwan’s security is no longer simply a matter of self-defense. It is deeply intertwined with the national interests of the United States and the stability of the global economy.

Although China has never abandoned its ambition to annex Taiwan, Taiwan’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its own defense—combined with coordinated deterrence from the United States, Japan, and the Philippines—will make Beijing think twice before undertaking any reckless actions. Confronted by Taiwan’s resolute defense posture and the swift collective response from the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and other regional partners, any attempt by China to use force would come at a devastating cost and could ultimately end in failure.