China's war games edge toward Taiwan’s red line

With little warning, China carried out live-fire drills around Taiwan, disrupting air and sea traffic and testing the island’s military readiness

On Dec. 29, the Eastern Theater Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) suddenly announced a military exercise encircling Taiwan called “Justice Mission-2025,” involving live-fire drills in five maritime and airspace zones around the island. 

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) said at an emergency press conference later that day that five of those zones fall within Taiwan’s 12-nautical-mile territorial limit.

At the same time, China announced seven no-entry live-fire drill zones in the Taiwan Strait on December 30 and seven aviation danger zones in Taiwan’s Taipei Flight Information Region from ground level to unlimited altitude.

The MND stated at a press conference on the 30th that the PLA fired two waves of multiple-launch rockets that day—27 rounds in total—with one wave landing close to Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone, the closest such incident on record.

Dr. Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), Director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told TCN that this round of exercises is different from previous ones because they are much closer to Taiwan, the restricted zones are more concentrated, and the flight ceilings are set to “unlimited,” which shows China is trying to disrupt Taiwan’s sea and air traffic, to demonstrate the effect of a partial blockade.

According to Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration, the PLA’s live-fire drills could affect 857 international flights and more than 100,000 passengers.

Last-minute

Dr. Su said China announced the exercise called Justice Mission 2025 with only three days left in the year, which makes it seem like a last-minute decision, even though the scale and preparation clearly show it was a planned, scripted drill.

Professor Huang Kwei-Bo (黃奎博) of the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University told TCN that since 2023, the PLA has usually held one major exercise in the first half of the year and another in the second half, and this one can be seen as the second major drill of 2025. 

He said that because of events like the Trump–Xi meeting and the Shanghai–Taipei Twin-City Forum, Beijing likely waited until those were over before going ahead with the drills. 

The Shanghai–Taipei Twin-City Forum is an annual meeting between officials from Shanghai and Taipei to discuss cooperation and exchanges, with topics typically including tourism, business, and city governance.

Huang said this indicates that Beijing approaches Taiwan within the context of the broader international strategic environment. It also suggests that, from China’s perspective, managing cross-strait relations and applying military pressure against pro-independence forces, including the current Lai Ching-te (賴清德) administration, may be treated as two distinct issues.

Purpose of the drills

When China's Eastern Theater Command announced the exercise, it said the drills were a stern warning against “Taiwan independence separatist forces” and a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.

Professor Huang said that the inclusion of parts of Taiwan’s territorial waters in the exercise zones demonstrates that, while the Lai administration continues to challenge Beijing rhetorically—for example, when Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) said that Lai Ching-te should be the “master of our state of Taiwan”—Beijing has responded with a tougher display of military force and an apparent disregard for Taiwan’s contiguous zone.

Dr. Su said the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) likely has several motives for the drills, but that the message is mainly aimed at the international community.

Su said that in 2025, international support for Taiwan has grown, citing wording in the 2025 US National Security Strategy that stresses collective defense along the First Island Chain to prevent Taiwan from being occupied, progress on the 2026 US National Defense Authorization Act and the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, and the US State Department’s approval of US$11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan on Dec. 19. 

He also noted Taiwan’s recent diplomatic gains in Europe, such as the country's vice president speaking at the European Parliament. After the Honduran presidential election, there is a chance Honduras may restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan, added Su.

Su noted that Beijing may be using the drills to express political dissatisfaction and is essentially taking out its anger on Taiwan.

Su also said the drills may help distract from internal problems within the CCP. One unusual sign, he noted, is that China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun (董軍) has disappeared from the official government website.

There are rumours that Dong Jun has been removed from his position as defense minister, Newtalk reported.

Taiwan’s response

Justice Mission 2025 is the fourth large-scale military exercise China has carried out against Taiwan since President Lai took office.

On Dec. 29, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said the military was responding in real time under its emergency procedures. An emergency operations center was established, and all units were ordered to immediately begin combat-readiness drills in case China’s exercises escalate into actual military action.

On Dec. 30, President Lai wrote on social media that Taiwan will not escalate tensions or start a conflict, but it will not back down when threatened. He said Taiwan’s national security team and military are closely monitoring China’s military moves and information warfare, and that Taiwan is staying in close contact and cooperation with democratic partners and friendly countries.

Trump was not worried

On Dec. 29, US President Donald Trump told the media that Chinese President Xi Jinping had not told him anything about the drills, the New York Post reported.

Trump said, “I don't believe he's going to be doing it,” adding that he was not worried and that China has been conducting navy exercises in the area for 20 years.

Threats to Taiwan

According to the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the exercises would focus on sea-air combat-readiness patrols and aim to seize overall battlefield superiority, blockade key ports and areas, and carry out all-direction deterrence beyond the island chain.

Dr. Su said that among these exercise items, the greatest threat to Taiwan is the seizure of comprehensive superiority, especially gaining control of the electromagnetic spectrum.

He explained that “all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain” refers to an access-denial strategy, meaning that China seeks to build layered sea, air, and underwater capabilities east of Taiwan to prevent other countries from coming to Taiwan’s defense. 

This also poses a threat to Taiwan, Su said, but Taiwan does have indirect countermeasures. If the PLA wants to carry out a blockade east of Taiwan during wartime, it must first pass through the Miyako Strait or the Bashi Channel, where it could be attacked or blocked by Taiwan’s anti-ship missiles.

US arms sales to Taiwan

Dr. Su said that, based on the focus of the current PLA exercises, several US weapons systems approved by the US State Department on Dec. 19 are especially important for Taiwan’s defense.

These include the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), TOW anti-tank missiles (BGM-71), Javelin missile systems, and ALTIUS-700M and 600M medium- and long-range drones, Su mentioned.

He said these are like “powerful prescriptions” for Taiwan’s defense because, if a war broke out, they would greatly improve Taiwan’s chances of stopping a PLA landing operation.