Export controls, Blackwell, and the Chip War

Taiwan Current News (TCN), in partnership with the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), has launched a new podcast series, Taiwan Frontlines, to track global trends and explore how Taiwan connects with the world.

To launch the series, Taiwan Frontlines invited renowned scholar Dr. Chris Miller, author of Chip War and a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, to discuss the most pressing challenges in terms of the semiconductor industry, chips, US-China competition in tech, Taiwan's role in it and the broader international landscape.

"Technology Denial"

Dr. Miller, in the podcast, shared his thoughts on US measures in terms of critical technologies and the impacts of these efforts to ensure technological competitiveness and to address security concerns.

US restrictions on semiconductor exports to China did not begin as a single, unified policy. They evolved over time, spanning multiple administrations and intensifying as chips became central to both economic competitiveness and national security.

The objective of the US restrictions, though, has been made clear: To minimize China's access to cutting-edge computing capabilities with strategic and even potential military applications.

While current President Donald Trump is often associated with a more confrontational approach toward China, including tariffs and technology bans, the CHIPS Act which was passed during the Biden administration also impacted and reshaped the semiconductor landscape. Dr. Miller discussed relevant issues on the matter with the hosts of Taiwan Frontlines.

The logic behind blocking advanced chips

Advanced semiconductors underpin artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance computing, and modern weapons systems. There is a concern among US policymakers that unrestricted sales of the most capable chips could accelerate China's progress in these areas.

As a result, export controls have increasingly focused on performance thresholds rather than blanket bans, allowing some sales while restricting the most advanced products. This approach reflects an attempt to balance commercial interests with security concerns, though it remains contested.

NVIDIA, Blackwell, and the dilemma

At the center of this debate is NVIDIA, now the world's most valuable semiconductor company, and its Blackwell GPU, often considered a breakthrough and powerful chip for AI.

On Jan. 6, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that the company plans to supply its flagship Blackwell chips and next-generation Rubin processors to the Chinese market in a timely manner, per Commercial Times.

Speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) held in Las Vegas, Huang said that while NVIDIA's H20 chip remains competitive in China for now, that advantage will not last indefinitely. To maintain a foothold in the Chinese market, he said, NVIDIA must continue to introduce successive generations of products.

Huang also stressed that US regulations would need to evolve in parallel, arguing that regulatory frameworks should be calibrated in a way that allows American technology firms to remain competitive in global markets.

In the podcast, Dr. Miller tried to unpack the complexities surrounding a major issue of concern: Some are afraid that even limited access could help Chinese firms close the gap faster, particularly when paired with domestic efforts to optimize software and system design.

This tension highlights a broader dilemma: US companies dominate advanced chip design, but derive substantial revenue from global markets, including China.

Furthermore, some are of the opinion that the export controls may not only hurt the US companies in a commercial sense, but may also incentivize China to innovate and produce advanced chips more quickly. Dr. Miller also shared his thoughts on this matter.

The US–Taiwan semiconductor ecosystem

A key factor shaping this debate is the production gap between Taiwan and China. Most of NVIDIA's most advanced chips are manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan, which currently leads the world in both process technology and production scale.

By contrast, China's leading foundry, SMIC, is estimated to produce only a small fraction of the advanced AI chip volume that TSMC can deliver. This disparity underpins confidence in the US–Taiwan ecosystem's lead, which Dr. Miller discussed extensively.

For more in-depth coverage, tune in to Taiwan Frontlines on the NOWNEWS official YouTube channel.