Major shake-up rocks China’s military leadership, but impact on Taiwan is limited for now

A major shake-up in China’s military leadership has triggered ripple effects, but experts say it does not affect the near-term likelihood of military action against Taiwan.

On Jan. 24, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that Zhang Youxia (張又俠), Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli (劉振立), a member of the CMC who concurrently served as Chief of the Joint Staff Department, were placed under investigation and case filings were initiated against them for serious disciplinary violations.

In an editorial published on January 25, the PLA Daily said that Zhang and Liu committed five serious wrongdoings. 

The editorial claimed they badly betrayed the trust of the Party leadership, seriously undermined the authority of the CMC chairman, fueled corruption that weakened the Party’s control over the military, damaged the CMC's credibility, and hurt the morale of officers and soldiers.

On the same day, the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper People’s Daily republished this PLA Daily editorial and placed it on the front page, signaling the severity of the situation. 

The CMC is China’s highest military decision-making body, responsible for commanding the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Following this investigation, only two of the seven CMC members remain, Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) and General Zhang Shengmin (張升民), the latter having been promoted just last year.

Impact on Taiwan

Professor Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), Director of Tamkang University's Center for Cross-Strait Relations, told TCN that this is the first time since the CCP established its armed forces in 1927 that the top command has been left so vacant. 

This unprecedented shake-up has led observers in Taiwan to question whether the PLA’s ability or willingness to use force against Taiwan has been affected.

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to bring the self-governed island under its control, by force if necessary.

Professor Chang said that currently the CMC currently lacks a vice chairman with real battlefield command experience, as Zhang Shengmin’s background is in discipline and inspection, and key positions—including the top staff post for joint operations—remain empty. 

He noted that the purge demonstrates Xi Jinping’s absolute control over the military, leaving no room for the armed forces or Politburo members to push him toward a tougher stance on Taiwan or challenge his authority.

In addition, given that Beijing is prioritizing the "Two Sessions" in March and a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Xi in April, Chang believes the immediate risk of military action against Taiwan remains extremely low.

China’s “Two Sessions” are the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, where the government announces policy directions, economic goals, and major personnel decisions.

Windows for 2027 has faded

Dr. Ding Shuh-fan (丁樹範), an emeritus professor at the College of International Affairs at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, expressed a similar view on the likelihood of PLA military action against Taiwan.

Professor Ding told TCN that the "window of opportunity" for a 2027 invasion appears to have closed.

In 2023, the former director of the United States Central Intelligence Agency William J. Burns said that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Ding noted that such an operation requires massive, visible preparations that are currently non-existent.

He further explained that the PLA has never fought a real joint warfare, that even the officers who teach joint operations lack real combat experience, and that the military’s command structure is confusing, with unclear lines of authority between commanders, political officers, and Party officials. 

“The PLA will need a long time to figure things out,” Ding added.

Impacts on the PLA

Professor Ding noted that this shake-up could have far-reaching consequences for the PLA’s military development.

Ding explained that trust between the top Party leadership and the military has basically broken down, so even though Xi Jinping can still promote generals, it is unclear how much he actually trusts them or how confident he feels after removing so many senior officers. 

Professor Ding went on to said that with so many generals pushed out, those who move up are likely to play it safe and avoid taking initiative, and this climate of suspicion might lead to a "passive" military culture where rising officers avoid taking initiative for fear of triggering an investigation.

This hesitancy is likely to slow the PLA’s modernization and efficiency, Professor Ding stated, because major decisions like weapons development and procurement involve sensitive resource and interest issues, forcing officials to wait for clear instructions and multiple approvals before moving forward.

The purge is not over

At present, there are no signs that the vacancies on the CMC will be filled anytime.

Professor Chang noted that the PLA will not stop with just these two individuals and that investigations will continue and likely expand, and the internal cleanup is not yet over.

From Xi‘s perspective, Chang stated, the risk is whether this purge undermines morale more than it strengthens combat capabilities.

Rumors

There has been widespread speculation about this shack-up. 

On Jan. 25, the Wall Street Journal published an exclusive report claiming that the recent purge of China’s top military leadership may be related to allegations that nuclear secrets were leaked to the United States in exchange for bribes.

Professor Ding said he tends to see the issue as a matter of power politics, suggesting that Xi Jinping may have felt his authority was being challenged and decided to remove Zhang Youxia, while the exact details of what happened may never be fully known to outsiders.

Professor Chang dismissed those rumors as nonsense. He said that if Zhang had leaked nuclear secrets to the US, it would be treated as treason and dealt with immediately, not vaguely described as “five serious wrongdoings.”

Also, Chang noted that rumors about Zhang trying to launch a coup make no sense, since Zhang is 75 years old, holds only a Politburo seat, and there is no realistic alternative leader within the current top leadership who could replace Xi Jinping.

Invest more in studying China

Professor Chang said changes in China’s politics, economy, and especially its military are happening faster than ever, pressure on Taiwan is becoming more complex through gray-zone actions and diplomatic pressure, yet Taiwan is spending less time, money, and manpower studying China, which he said is worrying. 

He added that Taiwan needs to focus much more on understanding China’s top and mid-level power structures to better judge future trends, identify the real sources of risk, and more accurately assess the possibility of military action.