Japan election may strengthen Takaichi’s hand on security policy

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to win the House of Representatives election on Feb. 8, which would give Sanae Takaichi greater leverage in shaping the country’s foreign and security policies. 

According to a poll by Asahi Shimbun, the ruling LDP is gaining strength and could win a clear majority on its own—or even exceed 300 of the chamber’s 465 seats when combined with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi officially announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on Jan. 19 and scheduled a snap election for Feb. 8, per Asahi Shimbun.

Professor Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), Director of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Taiwan’s National Sun Yat-sen University and a specialist in Japanese studies, told TCN that the LDP has a fairly high chance of winning more than 233 seats and securing an outright majority.

Kuo cited several factors behind the LDP’s favorable outlook, including Takaichi’s high approval ratings, a poorly timed merger announcement by the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, and Takaichi’s active campaigning to boost support for her party’s local candidates.

Takaichi’s objectives

Before the dissolution of parliament, the ruling LDP–Japan Innovation Party coalition held 233 seats in the House of Representatives, just barely exceeding a majority. 

Kuo said the coalition still lacked enough seats to control all 17 standing committees. Some key chairmanships remained in opposition hands, he said, complicating the government’s legislative agenda.

Therefore, Takaichi must achieve a decisive victory in this election; if the outcome remains at only 233 seats for the LDP–Innovation Party coalition, the current governing constraints will not be resolved, Kuo added.

Kuo went on to say that Takaichi’s goal is likely a stable majority of around 244 seats, or even an absolute majority of 261 seats. That would allow the ruling coalition to appoint chairpersons for nearly all 17 standing committees.

Impact on foreign relations

In a House of Representatives Budget Committee session on Nov. 7, 2025, Takaichi said that if China attacked Taiwan, Japan might send in its Self-Defense Forces and exercise its right to collective self-defense. Her remarks angered Beijing and heightened tensions between China and Japan, with no clear signs of easing so far. 

On Jan. 6, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced export controls banning more than 1,000 dual-use items, including rare earths, from being sold to Japan for military or military-related purposes.

On Jan. 24, Takaichi stated on a nationwide TV program that if Japan stayed on the sidelines during a Taiwan crisis, the US-Japan alliance could fall apart, per Reuters.

Kuo said the LDP released its election platform on Jan. 23, which emphasized the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait. 

He added that Takaichi’s Jan. 24 TV comments suggest that if her camp wins more than 244 seats, she intends to keep the policy direction of her previous cabinet. That would mean pressing ahead firmly with security preparations for a possible Taiwan crisis. 

However, Kuo mentioned that this doesn’t necessarily translate into a sharply tougher diplomatic stance toward China.

He went on to note that that even with a strong win, Takaichi would likely try to ease tensions with China, since the current strained relationship hurts both sides. 

As an example, Kuo cited China’s January export controls, saying they could have negative effects on both economies.

If Takaichi’s camp fails to win 244 seats, Kuo pointed out, she may be forced to take a softer approach on China, since she openly warned the public about China’s security threats when dissolving parliament and a weak voter response would likely pressure her to dial back her China policy.

Three national security documents

On Jan. 11, Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Japan plans to make strengthening defense in the Pacific a key part of this year’s update to its three national security documents. The reported measures include upgrading ports, runways, and radar systems.

The report said that as China’s military becomes more active in the Pacific and the region remains an important route for US forces around Japan and Taiwan, Japan hopes the updates will help both countries respond more effectively to potential threats.

Japan's three national security documents consist of the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program, which together lay out the country’s overall security policy direction, defense goals, and concrete plans for military capabilities and budgets.

Kuo explained that documents are normally updated every five years and were originally scheduled for December 2027. He said Takaichi stated last year that the revision would be brought forward by one year.

The election will not change the timeline, Kuo said. However, a strong win for Takaichi could produce updated documents that spell out Japan’s security preparations more clearly and more forcefully.