Japan’s snap election delivers mandate for Takaichi’s security agenda

A landslide election victory has strengthened Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hand as she moves to push constitutional amendments and overhaul national security policy.

Japan’s House of Representatives held a snap election on Feb. 8, with results showing a landslide victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Sanae Takaichi. The ruling coalition formed by the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) secured 352 of the chamber’s 465 seats.

The LDP alone increased its seat count from 198 to 316, surpassing the two-thirds supermajority threshold of 310 seats in the lower house. According to Kyodo News, this outcome makes the LDP the first single political party in postwar Japan to win more than two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives.

US President Donald Trump publicly congratulated Takaichi on her victory via his Truth Social account, expressing hopes for her great success in advancing a conservative, “peace-through-strength” agenda and affirming that the Japanese people would continue to have his strong support.

Takaichi later responded on her X account, thanking Trump and stating that she looks forward to visiting the White House this spring to further strengthen the Japan–US alliance.

Dr. Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University in Taiwan and Chairman of the Taiwan Society of Japan Studies, told TCN that Japan plays a critically important role in East Asia and along the First Island Chain, serving as a forward outpost for the United States in the Indo-Pacific and East Asian regions.

Wang noted that political instability or a lack of policy continuity in Japan would pose significant risks for US investment in the Indo-Pacific and for Washington’s efforts to compete with China.

The election result is the most unfavorable outcome for China, but represents a relatively positive development for the United States, Taiwan, and other countries in the region, Wang mentioned.
 

Constitutional amendment

According to NHK, following the election, Takaichi held a press conference on Feb. 9, announcing her intention to advance effort for constitutional amendment and to create an environment as early as possible for holding a national referendum on amending the Constitution.

Japan’s constitutional amendment process begins with political parties submitting proposals to the Diet, where they are reviewed by constitutional committees in both chambers and must win approval from more than two-thirds of all members of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. If that threshold is met, the proposal is put to a national referendum, where it is adopted if a majority of valid votes cast are in favor.

The LDP does not currently hold a two-thirds majority in the House of Councillors.

Ahead of the election the LDP listed constitutional revisions related to clarifying the role of the Self-Defense Forces and establishing a constitutional framework for declaring a state of emergency as part of its agenda, and the JIP has sought revisions to Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, per The Japan Times.

Article 9, known as Japan’s pacifist clause, stipulates that Japan forever renounces war as a sovereign right of the nation, as well as the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes. It further states that land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, shall not be maintained, and that the right of belligerency of the state shall not be recognized.

Wang noted that US support is also essential, as Japan’s Constitution was written primarily by American civilian officials. He said Takaichi would need strong backing from Washington — or at least an absence of opposition.

Three national security documents

Wang mentioned that Takaichi is likely to begin with less politically difficult legal revisions, such as changes to Japan’s three national security documents.

Wang said the landslide victory could bring several anticipated changes, including loosening  restrictions on overseas weapons exports and redefining what constitutes a contingency situation. He said one question would be whether Japan could proactively provide medical aid, humanitarian assistance, or evacuations — without being constrained by the pacifist Constitution — in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. 

He added that a more complex issue would be potential adjustments to Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles, with elements approaching the concept of nuclear sharing and possibly opening the door for the US to deploy nuclear weapons in Japan.

Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles stipulate that the country will not possess, produce, or introduce nuclear weapons.

However, Wang emphasized that Japan would still seek US support, and Tokyo would only take further steps if Washington clearly gave the green light.

China–Japan Relations

On Nov. 7, 2025, Takaichi told the Diet that Japan might deploy the Self-Defense Forces to exercise the right of collective self-defense if a crisis were to occur in the Taiwan Strait. The remarks angered China, pushing China–Japan relations to a low point, with Beijing demanding that Takaichi retract her comments.

On Feb. 9, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian (林劍) responded to the LDP’s landslide election victory during a regular press briefing. 

Lin said China’s policy toward Japan remains stable and unchanged by any single election, while reiterating Beijing’s demand that Japan urge Takaichi to withdraw her “erroneous” Taiwan-related remarks to demonstrate sincerity in safeguarding the political foundation of China–Japan relations.

Wang said that Takaichi has made clear that she will not retract her position on a Taiwan contingency. 

Wang mentioned that after the landslide victory — largely driven by Takaichi’s personal appeal — few voices within the LDP remained capable of restraining her. He said Takaichi has stated her priority in a Taiwan contingency would be protecting Japanese and American nationals under the Japan–US alliance framework. 

Wang said prospects for reconciliation in China–Japan relations appear limited: While Japan remains open to dialogue, Beijing is unlikely to soften its stance given Takaichi’s strong public mandate and push toward constitutional revision.

He added that the election results show China’s previous pressure on Japan has been ineffective, but that Beijing is unlikely to admit failure and may instead continue to intensify pressure on Tokyo.

Taiwan–Japan Relations

When asked about Taiwan–Japan relations under a new Takaichi administration, Wang said there remains significant room for breakthroughs. He said existing cooperation was unlikely to be weakened, with the key variable being whether senior-level exchanges can become more formal, such as minister-level Taiwanese officials visiting Japanese government ministries.

However, he stressed that Japan will not explicitly commit to defending Taiwan in a crisis, noting that the United States would also avoid making such a public pledge.

Wang added that Takaichi may justify actions on grounds such as protecting Japanese nationals in Taiwan and Japan’s national interests, but whether Japan would take concrete steps to defend Taiwan remains unpredictable.