The Virginia-class attack submarine USS New Mexico (SSN 779) (United States Navy)

Kuiken warns of growing China challenge beneath the waves

Mike Kuiken, vice chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, stated during a Mar. 2 hearing titled “Part of Your World: U.S.-China Competition Under the Sea” that the "strategic island at the center of the world" has shifted from Manhattan to Taiwan. 

He noted that modern life now runs on semiconductors almost exclusively manufactured there.

Referencing Russell Shorto’s book The Island at the Center of the World, Kuiken argued that Taiwan now sits at the fulcrum of global power and risk. “Today, there is a different island at the center of the world—and it is Taiwan,” he stated. 

Kuiken said the world’s dependence on these chips extends from everyday devices to AI systems, calling them “the lifeblood of virtually everything around us.”

Kuiken warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027. 

Noting the urgency, Kuiken remarked, “That is [just] nine months away,” adding, “We do not know whether capability will become intent, but we do know where the first signals will appear.”

While stressing uncertainty regarding Beijing’s ultimate intentions, Kuiken said the earliest warning signs would likely emerge in space, cyber, and the undersea domain.

He noted that while the United States has long maintained a dominant edge beneath the waves, China is rapidly expanding its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines and developing uncrewed underwater systems to close the gap. 

Kuiken also highlighted the roughly 600 undersea fiber-optic cables that carry nearly all intercontinental data and facilitate over $10 trillion in financial transactions daily. He warned that any disruption would strike at the heart of the global economy and that China now possesses the means to target this network.

Ultimately, Kuiken stated that Beijing is working simultaneously to close the military gap with the US, compromise critical communications infrastructure, and dominate global resources.