Operation Epic Fury sends shockwaves all the way to the Taiwan Strait

A joint US-Israeli military strike that reportedly killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves across the Asia-Pacific, raising urgent questions about Taiwan's energy security and the future of a planned Trump-Xi summit.

On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched military strikes on Iran under the code names Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion. The initial wave of attacks destroyed multiple Iranian military command facilities in Tehran and killed Khamenei, 86, along with several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran began retaliating on Mar. 1, launching missile attacks on Israel and on Persian Gulf countries hosting US military forces, including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

On Mar. 2, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official Ebrahim Jabari announced that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be attacked, per Al Jazeera.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global transit route for energy supplies. According to CNBC, roughly 31% of the world’s crude oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass through the strait, and a prolonged closure could push oil prices above US$100 per barrel.

On Mar. 4, US President Donald Trump wrote on social media that he had ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to immediately provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade. Trump also said the US Navy could escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary to “ensure the free flow of energy to the world.”

Energy security concerns for Taiwan

Professor Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University, told TCN that the most immediate strategic impact of the Middle East crisis on the Asia-Pacific region is energy security.

Taiwan is particularly vulnerable, Liu said. Since the Democratic Progressive Party government implemented its nuclear-free policy, Taiwan has become more reliant on natural gas and coal for power generation, and about 25–30% of Taiwan’s natural gas imports come from Qatar.

Following Iranian attacks that halted operations at Qatari gas processing facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan could face an energy shortage if contingency plans are not in place, Liu warned.

The New York Times also highlighted the issue, noting that the global economy depends heavily on semiconductors produced by Taiwan’s manufacturing giants, which require stable electricity supplies. With more than 96% of Taiwan’s energy imported — largely from the Middle East — disruptions to energy shipments could threaten not only Taiwan but the broader global economy.

Liu added that the situation could worsen if China were to simultaneously adopt coercive measures, such as delaying LNG shipments bound for Taiwan.

“Previous scenario planning focused on the possibility of China blockading Taiwan and cutting off energy supplies,” Liu said. “This time, however, the risk comes from war in the Middle East, which has exposed vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s energy security.”

Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫) said during an interpellation on Mar. 3 that Taiwan has secured sufficient natural gas supplies for March. If the conflict continues into April, he said, the government has contingency measures in place. Kung said Taiwan would not face power rationing due to gas shortages, adding that coal-fired power generation would be used only as a last resort.

Impact on Cross-Strait status

So far, there are no signs that the Iran war has directly affected tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

Liu said China is unlikely to take military action against Taiwan in the short term. 

Beijing is currently focused on its annual “Two Sessions” meetings, where authorities are expected to announce detailed targets and implementation plans for the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, Liu added.

China’s “Two Sessions” are the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, where the government announces policy directions, economic goals, and major personnel decisions.

“As a major power, China operates on a set schedule of policy priorities,” Liu said. “In the near term, the focus will be on implementing the new five-year plan, and there are no clear indications of major moves against Taiwan.”

Dr. Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University, shared a similar view. Wang told TCN that Chinese military aircraft have not crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait recently, suggesting that Beijing is not preparing for immediate military escalation.

“It appears that China did not expect the United States to take action so quickly,” Wang said. 

Wang added that China will likely avoid risky moves against Taiwan after witnessing Washington’s swift military response.

“A full-scale war against Taiwan is impossible,” Wang said. “But continued harassment of Taiwan will not change.”

He added that Beijing may be reconsidering its strategy regarding a potential blockade of the Taiwan Strait and what concessions it might extract from the US by threatening regional stability.

However, the US strike on Iran may also reinforce the message that Washington will not compromise on issues involving its core interests, Wang said, including the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and regional security involving South Korea and Japan.

Trump–Xi meeting in question

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅), in a Mar. 1 phone call with Russia’s foreign minister, reiterated that China supports adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter and opposes the use of force in international relations. Beijing called for an immediate halt to military operations in Iran and urged a return to dialogue and negotiations, while opposing unilateral actions.

A New York Times report on Mar. 3 said Beijing may consider canceling or postponing a planned meeting in early April between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) following the US attack on Iran, which has long been viewed as one of China’s strategic partners.

Wang believes the summit is still likely to take place. “For China, the more tense and unstable the international environment becomes, the more it needs discussions with the United States about global issues,” he said.

Wang added that if Beijing were to cancel talks in anger over the US strike on a strategic partner, the move could backfire. Instead, China may have stronger incentives to maintain communication with Washington.

He said Taiwan would likely remain a topic at the summit, including US arms sales to Taiwan and Beijing’s opposition to Taiwanese independence. China may also seek at least a verbal commitment from Washington that it does not support Taiwan independence.

Liu, however, said the possibility that the Middle East crisis could affect whether the Trump–Xi meeting ultimately takes place cannot be ruled out. He noted that Washington did not inform Beijing in advance of the attack on Iran, leaving Chinese leaders surprised by the move. 

Given Iran’s status as one of China’s strategic partners, Liu said the situation could affect Beijing’s willingness to host Trump in China, as some international media reports have suggested.