2026 TTX focuses on China’s gray-zone threats, revealing new challenges facing Taiwan

The “2026 Political, Economic, Military, and Psychological Situation Tabletop Exercise” (2026 TTX) opened on April 15 with a focus on China’s gray-zone military coercion, examining how Beijing employs tactics short of open warfare to steadily pressure Taiwan and erode the cross-strait status quo.

The exercise's first move centered on a 2030 scenario in which Beijing uses a mix of military activities, law enforcement measures, and political signaling to incrementally shift conditions in the Taiwan Strait in its favor.

The 2026 TTX assumed that gray-zone operations — ranging from coast guard deployments and maritime militia activity to drone surveillance and frequent military incursions — have become increasingly systematic. Because Beijing often frames such actions as law enforcement or internal affairs, international responses become more complicated.

US team's suggestions

US team leader William A. Stanton, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT)  said most gray-zone threats against Taiwan simulated in the exercise did not cross the threshold for the use of force. An actual blockade would be the exception and would require direct US action.

Stanton said that Washington should adopt a stronger overall stance by providing clearer political and practical support for Taiwan, helping it to defend universal values such as democracy, freedom, and human rights. 

He added that Taiwan merits greater international recognition and support due to its status as a vibrant democracy and its role as the fourth-largest US trading partner, driven largely by the semiconductor sector.

Stanton told TCN that the US presidents should demonstrate more robust backing for Taiwan and pay closer attention to democratic partners, including Japan and South Korea.

Views from the blue team (Taiwan)

Blue team leader, retired Republic of China Air Force Lieutenant General Tien Tsai-mai (田在勱), said Taiwan’s core strategy should focus on internationalizing the legal and political framing of the issue, emphasizing its defensive posture while grounding actions in international law and avoiding escalation.

Tien noted that Taiwan must strengthen civil-military coordination, establish clear rules of engagement, and develop operational responses to maritime interference, alongside rapid legal and diplomatic communication mechanisms. 

He emphasized that information operations are critical to counter opposing narratives, sustain global support, and normalize Taiwan’s continued use of international waters, thereby shifting the costs of escalation onto China.

Tien also called on the US to reaffirm the applicability of international law, provide operational and diplomatic support, and lead coordinated sanctions efforts, while urging other countries to condemn aggression and pursue stronger collective responses.

He told TCN that responding effectively to China’s gray-zone threats requires enhanced interagency coordination across Taiwan’s government.

Strategies from the red team (China)

Red team leader Hong Rong-i (洪榮一) told TCN that Beijing’s Taiwan policy centers on framing the issue as a domestic matter. 

To prevent external intervention, he said, the most effective strategy is to focus on economic development, public welfare, and humanitarian concerns, aiming to enhance the well-being of people in Taiwan while emphasizing greater safety and prosperity.

Hong said the red team proposed expanding economic cooperation mechanisms and promoting “integrated law enforcement” to gradually align cross-strait activities and internalize the Taiwan issue. 

Hong cited Kinmen as a key example, suggesting the development of Xiamen Xiang’an International Airport as a joint gateway linking Xiamen and Kinmen, with the goal of “bringing the world to Kinmen and bringing Kinmen to the world.” He argued that such economically driven initiatives would serve as a highly persuasive approach in advancing cross-strait integration.

International team’s views

International team leader Franz Jessen, former EU ambassador to the Philippines, noted that concepts such as “international law” and “economic sanctions” have become less effective in today’s global environment. 

He said that many countries would likely remain silent to avoid being drawn into tensions involving the US, China, and Taiwan. 

In the event of a conflict, Jessen said, international involvement would be limited. Possible responses, he said, could include calls for investigations, humanitarian assistance and other post-conflict measures.

Japan team’s views

Japan team leader Professor Toshitaka Takeuchi of Osaka University said Japan’s overall position aligns with that of the US and Taiwan, including support for exposing China’s coercive actions more forcefully through platforms such as the United Nations.

Beyond diplomatic efforts, the Japan team recommended that Japan conduct joint military exercises with the US and South Korea and consider deploying cruise missiles in its southwestern island chain, located approximately 110 kilometers from Taiwan, to significantly enhance deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.


The first move of the 2026 TTX highlighted a shift in the Taiwan Strait security environment away from traditional military confrontation and toward prolonged competition centered on gray-zone tactics. How Taiwan responds to sustained pressure without triggering escalation has emerged as a central challenge for its future national security strategy.