Experts warn Taiwan's defense credibility at stake in budget showdown

Taiwanese and American security experts said Friday (April 17) that Taiwan risks losing its credibility as a defense partner if partisan infighting continues to stall its special defense budget, with consequences extending well beyond delayed weapons deliveries.

The warning came at a NOWNEWS forum held April 17 titled "Taiwan's Critical Choices: The Real Tests of National Defense, Energy Policy, and Economic Development," which brought together analysts from Taiwan and the United States to discuss arms procurement, cross-strait security and broader strategic challenges.

Taiwan needs to act now

Former Taiwanese legislator and current Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Hsu Yu-jen (許毓仁) said Washington judges Taiwan not only by how much it spends on defense, but by its demonstrated will to defend itself.

If Taiwan fails to shoulder its responsibilities as a partner in the first island chain, he said, it risks becoming a "problem" for the United States.

Hsu noted that the procurement of weapons and ammunition to a production pipeline that requires time and scheduling, not something that can be delivered instantly. 

He said that if the legislature blocks the defense budget due to partisan infighting, it would weaken Taiwan's defenses, leaving frontline forces under-equipped and creating openings for pressure from China.

With conflicts flaring worldwide and defense resources under severe strain, Hsu cautioned that Taiwan risks losing even the chance to queue for weapons purchases if it does not act now. 

Addressing the current political divisions in Taiwan, Hsu cited former US President Theodore Roosevelt's maxim, "Speak softly and carry a big stick." He said the Kuomintang's (KMT) emphasis on dialogue and the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) focus on strength are not inherently contradictory, but warned that "dialogue without strength amounts to surrender."

Manpower issue

Huang Chieh-cheng (黃介正), a professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, offered another perspective. He urged that Taiwan should not confuse weapons acquisition with actual force-building.

He said the central issue is not only what systems Taiwan buys, but whether those systems can be translated into real combat capability.

Huang said Taiwan's military has faced serious manpower shortages in recent years, including weak recruitment and retention. He told TCN that these shortfalls are not merely administrative issues but structural risks that directly undermine operational effectiveness, especially when advanced equipment cannot be fully utilized.

He added that strengthening defense capability requires sustained investment in human capital — including improved compensation and allowances through phased, differentiated support — alongside better training and career stability, rather than relying solely on technological advancement.

Taiwan should not be a free rider

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, argued that Taiwan is by no means a military "free rider."

He stated that Taipei must raise defense spending to more than 3% of GDP to strengthen infrastructure and reserve forces — steps he described as essential not only for survival, but also as a signal of political resolve to international partners.

Su criticized domestic party competition for allowing short-term political interests to shape defense policy, resulting in inconsistent decisions and weakening societal resilience in the face of threats from China.

Citing lessons from the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, Su stressed that "security begins at one's doorstep," adding that a nation's will ultimately determines how long it can endure in times of conflict. He urged Taiwan to shift from being a "protected party" to a "contributor to regional security," and to safeguard its democratic and free way of life.

US-Taiwan defense ties

Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the biggest obstacle in US-Taiwan defense ties is a lack of "interoperability," noting that current cooperation remains limited to "deconfliction" — simply avoiding accidental clashes — an arrangement he called "meaningless in actual combat."

He warned that Taiwan must give equal weight to US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS).

To speed up modernization, he urged prioritizing DCS to rapidly acquire software-driven systems such as unmanned aerial and surface platforms, which can bypass lengthy procurement delays.

Trump-Xi meeting

Montgomery said that at an anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (習近平) — which he placed on May 14 — Taiwan's performance will be judged by both leaders.

He said Taiwan must prove it is "an ally worth investing in" by raising defense spending to 3%–3.5% of GDP, warning that failure to demonstrate resolve would jeopardize its future.

Michael Sobolik, a Hudson Institute Senior Fellow, expressed a similar view, saying Xi will "almost assuredly" ask Trump at the meeting to publicly oppose Taiwanese independence, as Xi had asked Joe Biden to do.

Sobolik noted that Taiwan still has more control over its future than it might think, especially ahead of the possible Trump-Xi meeting.

He said if Taiwan can pass its defense budget on favorable terms and raise spending to 3.5% of GDP before the meeting, it would demonstrate real initiative — something fully within its power as a democratic system to achieve.