Taiwan and China enter new diplomatic confrontation after Lai's Africa tour

President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) successfully completed a state visit to Eswatini — Taiwan's only remaining ally on the African continent — after China’s diplomatic pressure forced a last-minute rerouting of his trip.

Lai had originally been scheduled to travel to Eswatini on April 22, but Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar canceled overflight permits for his aircraft under pressure from Beijing, forcing a postponement, according to Office of the President. 

Taiwan's national security and diplomatic teams quickly devised an alternative. 

Lai traveled to Eswatini on May 2 aboard the return flight of Eswatini Deputy Prime Minister Thulisile Dladla, following her visit to Taiwan. He completed the state visit and returned to Taiwan on May 6 using the same arrangement.

Speaking at a press conference upon his return, Lai said the people of Taiwan have the right to engage with the world. He added that “The Republic of China (Taiwan) abides by rules-based international norms and aims to advance mutual benefits and shared prosperity in the international community.”

Both sides set precedents

Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), director of the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University, told TCN that the latest cross-strait diplomatic confrontation had set “new precedents on both sides.”

China's interference with flight information region (FIR) arrangements in Mozambique and the two other countries to block Lai's travel was, Kuo said, "extremely heavy-handed and entirely contrary to international norms." He warned that Beijing’s efforts to squeeze Taiwan’s diplomatic space would continue to intensify in both frequency and scale.

With Taiwan's formal allies now concentrated mainly in Latin America and the South Pacific — with Eswatini being its only African partner — Kuo noted China's establishment of this "dangerous precedent" will only embolden it to deploy diplomatic leverage more aggressively against Taiwan's international activities.

Break through the dipolmatic encirclement

Huang Kwei-bo (黃奎博), professor in the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University, told TCN that Beijing demonstrated a sense of urgency about containing Taiwanese independence, combined with its substantial diplomatic influence across Africa, and accordingly moved to complicate Lai's travel.

Huang noted that Eswatini's deputy prime minister accompanied Lai on all four legs of the journey — an arrangement he described as a diplomatic first for both countries. While Lai's government had exhausted every available channel through like-minded non-allied states, it ultimately required a high-level Eswatini official to fly across the ocean four times to make the visit possible, Huang said.

This may not be a diplomatic breakthrough, Huang said, because it did not go beyond the scope of allies helping one another. Huang added, but it did "break through the diplomatic encirclement" — because Beijing could not stop Lai from boarding an allied nation's state aircraft.

Huang also cautioned that Lai's use of unconventional means to visit an ally, while demonstrating his resolve to push back against China, also reveals that Taiwan's available options are narrowing and its international space continues to shrink.

Impact upon the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15 and is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).

On April 30, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Wang stated that "the Taiwan question concerns China's core interests and is the biggest risk point in China-US relations." 

Huang assessed that the episode involving Lai's obstructed trip is unlikely to feature prominently at the Trump-Xi table, and should have little bearing on how Taiwan is discussed at the summit. 

He added that US verbal commitments to Taiwan are likely to remain unchanged, but whether US actions shift in practice will only become clear in the weeks following the Trump-Xi meeting.

Kuo said China will almost certainly raise four Taiwan-related issues at the summit: arms sales to Taiwan, the question of Taiwan's legal status, opposition to Taiwanese independence, and restrictions on Lai's transit through US territory.

On arms sales, Kuo said Trump's posture toward Taiwan remains relatively stable. In addition to a previously announced US$11.1 billion arms package, he noted that a new package worth approximately US$14 billion is under discussion, with another roughly US$6 billion deal still pending review.

Kuo also referenced comments Trump made in October 2025, ahead of his Busan meeting with Xi, in which Trump told reporters that "Taiwan is Taiwan" — a formulation Kuo read as a signal that Trump will not compromise US policy or rhetoric on Taiwan in response to Chinese pressure.

On trade, Kuo said that Trump may be more focused on rebalancing the US-China trade relationship, potentially seeking orders for American agricultural and manufactured goods and Boeing aircraft, as well as establishing institutionalized mechanisms to manage bilateral differences. 

As a result, Kuo said, Trump may not want to spend much time on the Taiwan issue at all.

Crisis response

Kuo noted that Chinese pressure on Taiwan's diplomatic activities is not new — it has simply become more overt. 

Past incidents include an unidentified vehicle trailing then-Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) during a visit to Europe, Kuo explained.

Those earlier operations were typically conducted through local proxies to avoid a direct link to Beijing. This time, Kuo said, China openly interfered with another country's FIR arrangements — representing "institutionalized, public diplomatic suppression."

Kuo praised the Lai administration's response as itself a first in Taiwan's diplomatic history. After the original trip was blocked, the national security and diplomatic teams did not abandon the mission but immediately activated an alternative plan, he said, demonstrating that the team "operates around the clock, ready to respond at any moment."

He added that while it is rare for a head of state to travel on an allied country's aircraft, it is not without international precedent, raises no questions of diminished national dignity, and — given that the aircraft was an official Eswatini state plane — carried no security concerns.

Looking ahead, Kuo said the more significant question is how Taiwan's diplomatic playbook will evolve. Faced with increasingly aggressive Chinese pressure, Taiwan's security and foreign affairs teams will need to respond with greater flexibility and creativity, he said, while never compromising presidential safety or national dignity.

Risks management

Huang cautioned that the workaround, while successful, carries real risks going forward. 

Traveling aboard an ally's aircraft means Taiwan has limited control over pilot qualifications, maintenance standards, and communications equipment, Huang said.

Huang also noted that the likelihood of airspace being abruptly closed along a planned route may increase, and that aircraft could be forced to land in countries either hostile to Taiwan or susceptible to Chinese influence.

Huang outlined two possible approaches to managing these risks.

The first — and more difficult — path, Huang said, would be to rally strong support from major Western powers for Lai's allied visits, even at the cost of those countries' relations with Beijing.

The second path, Huang said, would be simpler but is one Lai appears reluctant to take: returning to the framework of the ROC Constitution and the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, abandoning the stance of being a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker." 

An improvement in cross-strait relations, Huang argued, would reduce diplomatic tensions as well.