Trump left Beijing, US Taiwan policy stayed the same — for now, experts say

US President Donald Trump concluded his China visit on May 15, as Beijing sought to link Taiwan to the framework of US-China relations, a move Washington met with deliberate restraint. Taiwan analysts say there has been no clear shift in US policy on Taiwan.

The meeting

Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. Following the summit, China’s Foreign Ministry released its summary of the meeting, in which Xi said he and Trump had agreed on a new framework for a “constructive relationship of strategic stability,” describing it as a long-term foundation for bilateral ties based on cooperation, managed competition, and predictable peace.

Xi stressed that Taiwan is the most important issue in US-China relations, warning that mishandling it could spark clashes or even conflict between the two powers. He declared that "Taiwan independence" was incompatible with cross-strait peace and urged Washington to exercise "extra caution" on Taiwan-related matters.

Trump did not address Taiwan until the flight home, when he fielded reporters' questions aboard Air Force One. According to Fox News, Trump said he and Xi had discussed the Taiwan issue at length but that he did not believe the US and China would come to conflict over it. 

He added that he made no commitments to Beijing. "I made no commitment either way," Trump said. On the question of arms sales to Taiwan, Trump said he would make a determination within "a fairly short period" after speaking with the person "that's running Taiwan."

After returning to the US, Trump told Fox News that US policy toward Taiwan had not changed, saying “nothing’s changed.” Trump added that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent,” and said he wanted both Taiwan and China to “cool down” to avoid conflict.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who accompanied Trump on the trip, told NBC following the summit that US arms sales to Taiwan "did not feature prominently" in the talks, though he acknowledged Beijing's deep displeasure over Washington's approval earlier this year of an approximately US$11 billion arms package for Taiwan. 

Rubio stated that "US policy on the issue of Taiwan is unchanged as of today and as of the meeting that we had here today." He also warned that any Chinese attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion would be a "terrible mistake" with consequences felt not just by the United States, but by the entire world.

A warming bilateral atmosphere

Professor Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University, told TCN that although the summit produced no formal documents or concrete agreements, the overall tone and follow-on arrangements suggest early signs of a "re-stabilization framework" in US-China relations.

Liu noted that while Beijing has in the past emphasized competition, China's introduction at this summit of the concept of a "constructive relationship of strategic stability" signals Beijing's desire to maintain a controlled, stable, and conflict-averse mode of engagement with Washington. 

He said this suggests the two countries are gradually restoring institutionalized high-level and ministerial dialogue after years of disruption brought on by trade wars, technology disputes, and military tensions.

Liu also pointed to the presence of both countries' defense ministers at summit-related events as a potentially significant signal. 

Senior defense officials have rarely attended US-China summits in the past, he said, and their inclusion this time suggests both sides have agreed to restore military-to-military communication channels — a development that, while unlikely to produce near-term military cooperation, nonetheless carries important implications for avoiding miscalculation and reducing risk.

Taiwan issue

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University, told TCN that the summit did not yield the clear-cut political deals or major agreements that some had anticipated. 

Beijing, however, made a visible effort to further intertwine the "Taiwan question" with the concept of "US-China strategic stability," while Washington tended to downplay Taiwan so as not to allow it to overshadow the broader bilateral atmosphere, Wang said.

By framing the issue this way, Wang explained, Beijing aims to convey to Washington that avoiding the "Thucydides Trap" requires the US to handle Taiwan carefully — including restraint on arms sales and Taiwan policy more broadly.

At the May 15 meeting, Xi posed the question of whether the two countries could overcome the Thucydides Trap and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations. The Thucydides Trap, a term popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison, describes the structural risk of conflict when a rising power threatens the position of an established one.

Wang noted this signals China's effort to reframe the Taiwan issue — moving it from a regional security and international matter into a central variable within the "US-China strategic stability framework." 

If Washington were to tacitly accept this framing, he warned, Taiwan would no longer be treated primarily as part of a US-China-Taiwan trilateral dynamic, but would instead become a decisive factor shaping the entire arc of US-China relations.

Washington's deliberate restraint

Wang noted that Washington appears to be proceeding cautiously, declining to accept Beijing's framing at face value. The overall US approach, he said, remains one of "cool handling."

On one hand, Wang said, Washington likely does not want to be pulled along by the framework Beijing has set, and so has chosen to play down the relevant language — avoiding any impression that it has accepted the notion that Taiwan is the core variable of US-China strategic stability. 

On the other hand, Wang said, the US was also unwilling to publicly disrupt the summit's atmosphere, and so refrained from pushing back hard against Beijing while still on Chinese soil.

Wang added that the Trump administration is currently more focused on showcasing the economic and diplomatic wins from the summit to a domestic audience, rather than immediately engaging the more sensitive questions around Taiwan and security.

Liu offered a similar read, suggesting Washington's low profile on Taiwan may reflect a desire to avoid an immediate confrontation with Beijing at a moment when the bilateral atmosphere is warming — while using the Secretary of State's public remarks to signal continued commitment to allies and domestic audiences. 

Liu said the Trump administration appears to be prioritizing the construction of a broader US-China stability framework, and is therefore handling Taiwan with restraint to avoid provoking Beijing. 

Yet, he noted, this does not represent a fundamental shift in US policy on Taiwan — rather, it may be a diplomatic maneuver aimed at not undermining the broader cooperative atmosphere.

Cross-strait

Liu said that as US-China interaction stabilizes, the highly confrontational atmosphere that has prevailed in East Asia could ease to some degree.

That said, Liu noted, this does not mean China's military pressure on Taiwan will immediately abate. 

Beijing's core Taiwan policy remains opposition to "Taiwan independence," he noted, and People's Liberation Army (PLA) air and naval activities around the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to change significantly in the near term as a result of the summit.

Liu said whether cross-strait tensions can ease further depends critically on Taiwan's own policy choices. 

Beijing, he explained, is primarily using military intimidation to push for reduced US-Taiwan cooperation, and is calling on Taipei to respond more constructively on cross-strait exchanges, people-to-people contacts, and certain policy issues. Without a resumption of more direct cross-strait communication and engagement, he said, the prospect of meaningful de-escalation remains dim.

Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of Tamkang University's Center for Cross-Strait Relations, said at a forum that the near-term outlook for the US-China-Taiwan trilateral relationship is not pessimistic, given multiple planned high-level US-China dialogues this year and the reactivation of the KMT-CCP platform across the strait, which gives Beijing a face-saving off-ramp. 

Overall, he said, while risks outweigh opportunities, the situation remains manageable.

Regional security implications

Wang agreed that short-term US-China stability will have a positive effect on overall regional security. 

But he stated that if Beijing succeeds in permanently linking "strategic stability" to the Taiwan question, countries across the region — including Taiwan — could find themselves under mounting pressure.

If the perception takes hold that Washington is making concessions on Taiwan to preserve US-China stability, Wang said, the damage might extend beyond Taiwan itself, potentially shaking the confidence of other Asian allies in US security commitments.

Wang further noted that Beijing could seek to leverage the "strategic stability" framework to press Washington to rein in other countries' policies and actions that run counter to Chinese interests — a development that would have broad implications for the strategic autonomy of Indo-Pacific nations.

For now, Wang said, the available signs suggest Washington has taken note of Beijing's strategic intent and is still assessing how best to respond.