Lai says ‘no Taiwan independence issue’ following Trump comments

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) reaffirmed his government's position on cross-strait relations after US President Donald Trump expressed reservations about Taiwanese independence, with analysts suggesting the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) may face growing pressure to revisit its cross-strait discourse.

Following his meeting with Xi, Trump said in a May 16 interview with Fox News that Washington’s policy toward Taiwan had “not changed,” but added that he was “not looking to have somebody go independent,” while urging both Taipei and Beijing to “cool down.”

Trump also expressed uncertainty over pending US arms sales to Taiwan, saying he had not yet approved the package and would “see what happens.” He added that the US was “not looking to have wars” and warned against any perception that Washington would support a formal move toward Taiwanese independence.

During the May 14 meeting between Trump and Xi, the Chinese leader reportedly described the Taiwan issue as the most important matter in US-China relations, warning that if it was not handled properly, the two countries “will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.” 

Xi said “Taiwan independence” and peace across the Taiwan Strait were “as irreconcilable as fire and water,” while stressing that maintaining cross-strait peace and stability was the “largest common denominator” between China and the United States. He also urged Washington to exercise “extra caution” in handling Taiwan-related issues.

Lai’s response

Lai responded to Trump’s remarks in a May 17 post on his official Facebook page, arguing that China’s growing military activities — including military drills, incursions by aircraft and naval vessels, and gray-zone coercion — were the real source of instability and attempts to alter the regional status quo.

Lai reiterated that the “Republic of China Taiwan” is a sovereign and democratic country, and that “the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other” is itself part of the status quo. 

“Therefore, there is no Taiwan independence issue,” he said. Lai added that Taiwan remains willing to engage in dialogue and exchanges with China on the basis of equality and dignity, while rejecting political coercion and united front infiltration carried out in the name of “unification.”

He also said Taiwan has continued to raise defense spending, pursue military reforms, strengthen asymmetric warfare capabilities, and improve reserve mobilization and societal resilience in order to safeguard democracy, freedom, and regional security. Lai emphasized that as China continues military expansion and has not renounced the use of force against Taiwan, continued US arms sales and deeper security cooperation remain necessary for maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Chiu Shih-yi (邱師儀), a professor of political science at Tunghai University, told TCN that Lai’s response on the Taiwan independence issue was “acceptable overall,” but might not be enough to entirely convince Trump that the Lai administration is not pursuing formal Taiwan independence.

Chiu said Trump may not fully understand the distinction between maintaining the “Republic of China (Taiwan) status quo” and pursuing a formal independence agenda involving constitutional or national title changes.

Taiwan’s domestic politics

Trump’s comments also spilled into Taiwan’s local election politics ahead of year-end mayoral races, particularly the contest for mayor of Taipei.

DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Pao-yang (沈柏洋) said in a May 16 media interview that the US has long opposed unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, and that Trump’s comments did not depart from that longstanding position.

Shen argued that the key issue surrounding the term “Taiwan independence” lies in how it is defined. He reiterated that, in his view, Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country, and that this itself constitutes the current status quo.

Therefore, he said, anyone attempting to change Taiwan’s status as a sovereign state would in fact be the one altering the status quo.

His opponent, incumbent Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安), said on May 17 that “we are all Taiwanese and citizens of the Republic of China,” while emphasizing that “the Republic of China is already a sovereign and independent country.” 

Chiang also questioned whether the DPP would be willing to abolish its pro-independence party platform.

The DPP’s independence platform, first adopted in 1991, called for the establishment of a sovereign and independent “Republic of Taiwan.” In 1999, the party adopted the “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future,” which states that Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country, that any change to the status quo must be decided by all Taiwanese people through referendum, and that Taiwan does not belong to the People’s Republic of China while rejecting the “One China” principle.

DPP may need a policy debate

According to Chiu, if Lai hopes to secure reelection in 2028 and enable the DPP to maintain long-term governance without facing major political challenges, the party may eventually need a second major debate over its future status.

He added that the DPP may need to further develop a narrative similar to former President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) “Republic of China Taiwan” formulation in order to attract moderate pan-blue voters while reducing Beijing’s ability to convince the Trump administration that Taiwan is actively pushing formal independence.

Chiu argued that if the DPP intends to further advance or upgrade its governing agenda in the future, adjusting and refining its political narrative will become increasingly important.

Long-term risk

He added that while the Taiwan Strait may not face an immediate crisis in the short term, long-term risks resembling a “boiling frog” scenario remain. 

Chiu warned that in the future, there could even be situations in which a US president would need to coordinate with Beijing before approving arms sales to Taiwan.