US-China thaw shapes Hegseth's Shangri-La message, analysts say

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth struck a softer tone on China at this year's Shangri-La Dialogue, Taiwan analysts say, as the Trump administration weighs a $14 billion arms sale to Taipei against the risks of upsetting a fragile détente with Beijing.

On May 29, Hegseth delivered a speech at the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, outlining the US vision for the Indo-Pacific and its relationship to the new US national defense strategy.

Hegseth said the Indo-Pacific remains vital to American security and prosperity, while expressing concern over China's rapid military expansion and its potential to upset the regional balance of power.

Washington's goal is not confrontation but the preservation of a stable and durable equilibrium in which no nation, “including China, can impose its hegemony and hold the security or prosperity of our nation and our allies in question,” Hegseth said.

While welcoming recent efforts to stabilize US-China relations and maintain regional peace, Hegseth stressed that the Pentagon would continue to sustain robust military capabilities to support diplomacy and ensure that Beijing respects longstanding US interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Softer rhetoric

Compared with his 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue address, in which Hegseth repeatedly highlighted the China threat and warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would bring “devastating consequences,” his 2026 speech made no direct reference to Taiwan and adopted a noticeably more restrained tone toward Beijing.

Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University, told TCN that the shift in rhetoric is closely linked to improving high-level interactions between Washington and Beijing.

Liu said the US and China are currently in a sensitive phase of reestablishing direct dialogue following the recent summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), including the resumption of military-to-military communication channels and preparations for a series of senior-level meetings later this year. 

Against this backdrop, he said, public criticism of China by US officials has become more measured, while Taiwan is increasingly discussed within the broader context of regional security rather than as a standalone issue.

However, Liu cautioned that it remains too early to conclude that Washington has made a structural shift in either its China policy or Taiwan policy.

He identified the period around September as a key indicator, particularly as Xi is expected to visit the US. The outcome of future high-level US-China engagements could significantly influence Washington's policy trajectory, Liu added. 

For now, Liu said, the more reasonable interpretation is that the US is pursuing a lower-profile and more cautious diplomatic approach rather than fundamentally altering its Indo-Pacific strategy.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), shared a similar assessment. 

Su noted that Hegseth had repeatedly referenced Taiwan and openly criticized Beijing's pressure campaign against the island last year, but has adopted a less confrontational tone this year without changing the underlying strategic direction of US policy.

According to Su, the current US approach resembles former President Theodore Roosevelt's diplomatic philosophy of speaking softly and carrying a big stick — reducing provocative rhetoric while continuing to strengthen military preparedness and deterrence capabilities to respond to any regional contingency.

Taiwan arms sales await Trump's decision

The US currently has roughly US$14 billion worth of proposed arms sales to Taiwan awaiting approval by Trump. 

The package reportedly includes soft-kill and hard-kill counter-drone systems, various anti-ballistic and air defense missiles, low-to-medium altitude air defense systems, and replenishment of anti-armor missile stockpiles.

Asked about future arms sales to Taiwan during the conference, Hegseth replied: “Any decision about future Taiwan arms sales, as the president said, will rest with him and as a nature of that relationship and certainly having been there for those meetings in Beijing, there's no change in our status there, so just to clarify.”

Liu said Hegseth's remarks underscore the extent to which Taiwan arms sales remain subject to Trump's personal decision-making style.

In Liu's view, the biggest variable affecting future US arms sales to Taiwan is the trajectory of US-China relations. 

He noted that Trump has invested considerable effort in rebuilding trust and dialogue with Beijing, and approving a major arms package too early could undermine Chinese confidence in Washington. As a result, relevant decisions may be postponed until after Xi's expected visit to the US in September.

Liu said few observers currently expect the arms package to be canceled outright, and instead Washington may delay its final decision until after Xi's visit. 

Historically, Washington often announced Taiwan arms sales at moments that minimize domestic political repercussions and friction in US-China relations, making postponement a more likely outcome than cancellation.

Taiwan urged to strengthen defense self-reliance

Su warned that uncertainties surrounding US arms sales highlight the importance of Taiwan strengthening its indigenous defense capabilities. 

While US support for Taiwan remains grounded in the Taiwan Relations Act and broader US policy has not changed, he noted that the American president retains significant authority over the timing and content of arms transfers.

“Taiwan cannot afford to rely excessively on external assistance,” Su said, arguing that the island should continue investing in self-reliant defense capabilities.

Liu echoed that view, saying Taiwan's force development plans should not be built entirely around procurement from the US. If future arms sales are delayed or adjusted, Taipei must have alternative plans and contingency measures in place.

“The government should think about defense development from a more diversified perspective and avoid overdependence on a single source,” Liu said. “That is the best way to reduce the impact of external political changes on Taiwan's defense preparedness.”

Risk of delivery delays

Su also pointed to growing pressure on the US defense industrial base. 

He noted that deliveries of Tomahawk missiles ordered by Japan have already experienced delays, reflecting broader strains on American missile and munitions production lines. 

Similar challenges, he said, could affect Taiwan's procurement of M142 HIMARS rocket systems and related munitions.

To reduce such vulnerabilities, Su argued that Taiwan should capitalize on its strengths in manufacturing, information technology, and semiconductors to advance indigenous defense programs. 

Citing the military's domestically developed Thunderbolt-2000 multiple-launch rocket system, Su said Taiwan possesses the industrial foundation necessary to develop longer-range precision rockets and missile systems if sufficient resources and policy support are provided.

Rather than viewing foreign arms purchases and indigenous defense development as mutually exclusive, Su said Taiwan should pursue both simultaneously to build a more resilient and sustainable defense posture.