Taiwan's 2026 TTX final report finds island facing unprecedented compound security challenges

The "2026 Political, Economic, Military, and Psychological Situation Tabletop Exercise" (2026 TTX), for which TCN served as the exclusive media partner, held its final report presentation on June 11 under the theme "The New Trends in U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry: Taiwan Security After the Trump-Xi Beijing Summit." 

The event featured a presentation of the final report by Professor Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), along with keynote speeches by retired ROC Navy Admiral and current Legislator Chen Yeong-kang (陳永康), Professor Chen Song-xing (陳松興), and Professor Tu Tzu-chen (杜紫宸).

Achievement

Asked by TCN to evaluate this year's exercise, Liu gave 2026 TTX a score of "at least nine out of ten." 

He said the exercise required extensive discussion, coordination, and cross-disciplinary integration, distinguishing it from a traditional international symposium by placing greater emphasis on scenario-based planning and participant coordination. 

"We have put so much effort into discussing, coordinating, and integrating different perspectives," Liu said.

Looking beyond 2027

TCN also asked whether TTX had any special plans for 2027, a year often cited by analysts as a potential window for a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Admiral Chen said that while many observers continue to focus on the so-called "Davidson Window," the likelihood of a cross-strait conflict in 2027 remains low. 

"The chance is still there, but the possibilities are very low," Chen said. 

He suggested that future TTX exercises may expand their focus beyond 2027 to examine broader regional strategic developments extending into 2030 and even 2035, when China is expected to complete major objectives associated with the Belt and Road Initiative.

"So, be happy in 2027," Chen remarked.

Liu added that the international environment remains highly fluid, particularly given the possibility of additional summits between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) later this year. 

As a result, planning for TTX 2027 will continue to evolve, Liu noted. 

He revealed plans to begin preparations earlier next year and invite more foreign diplomats and international experts based in Taiwan, aiming to demonstrate Taiwan's stability and counter narratives portraying 2027 as a potential "doomsday" scenario.

The final report

In presenting the final report, Liu argued that Beijing's pressure campaign against Taiwan extends far beyond conventional military coercion. It includes gray-zone operations, psychological warfare, media manipulation, legal warfare, cyber intrusions, and infiltration efforts targeting Taiwanese society, he noted.

The 2026 TTX accordingly focused on China's gray-zone military coercion against Taiwan on the first day and on long-term economic coercion and restructuring under great-power competition on the second day, Liu said.

One of the exercise's most significant findings, Liu said, was that "Taiwan's security challenge has expanded beyond crisis into a full-society, full-industry resilience stress test. Traditional defense frameworks alone are insufficient."

Preventing war through preparation

In his keynote remarks, Admiral Chen emphasized that the purpose of TTX is not to identify a single "best solution," but to help policymakers, businesses, and society prepare for a range of contingencies before a crisis occurs.

"There is no best solution," Chen said. When facing complex challenges, Chen added, "there are only affordable compromises. We have to solve problems before a crisis happens."

Echoing Liu's conclusions, Chen argued that Taiwan's security challenges extend well beyond the military domain to include economic coercion, legal warfare, cyberattacks, information operations, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and energy security risks.

He stressed that Taiwan's long-term security depends not only on acquiring weapons, but also on strengthening societal resilience, protecting critical infrastructure, ensuring stable energy supplies, and developing a coherent national security strategy.

From a Silicon Shield to an AI Shield

Professor Chen argued that US-China strategic competition has evolved beyond tariffs and semiconductors into a broader contest over energy, artificial intelligence, supply chains, and rule-making power, with Taiwan increasingly at the center of these developments.

According to Chen, Taiwan is transitioning from what has long been described as a "Silicon Shield" toward an emerging "AI Shield," as advanced semiconductors become the foundation of the global artificial intelligence revolution.

While Taiwan's dominance in advanced chip manufacturing provides substantial strategic leverage, it also creates concentration risks that require greater resilience and diversification, he said.

Chen noted that Taiwan now produces more than 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors and remains indispensable to the global AI supply chain.

"Taiwan is not just a production base for AI hardware; it is the backbone of the ecosystem. The value lies in process leadership, not just in wafers or chips," Chen said.

Economic resilience and long-term competitiveness

Professor Tu argued that the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing reflected the emergence of a new phase in US-China relations characterized by simultaneous competition, negotiation, and limited cooperation.

"The future of US-China relations will be shaped less by confrontation and more by bargaining," Tu said.

He warned that Taiwan's greatest risk may not come from direct pressure, but from becoming part of a bargaining process between major powers.

Tu emphasized that Taiwan's long-term competitiveness will depend on its ability to strengthen economic resilience amid a changing global order.

While Taiwan has gained a significant advantage through its leadership in semiconductors, the real challenge, he said, "is not maintaining today's success, but transforming it into broader national competitiveness."

According to Tu, diversified markets, industrial upgrading, energy security, talent development, and social resilience will be essential if Taiwan hopes to convert its semiconductor advantage into long-term national strength.