Experts see Japan-Philippines EEZ talks and China's maritime 'new normal' as growing pressure on Taiwan

Japan-Philippines talks on overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs) that exclude Taiwan, along with China's maritime law enforcement east of the island, are placing growing pressure on Taipei, security experts said at the release of the final report of the 2026 Political, Economic, Military, and Psychological Situation Tabletop Exercise (2026 TTX) on June 11. TCN attended the event as the exercise's exclusive media partner.

The EEZs

Professor Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University and one of the organizers of the 2026 TTX, told TCN that public debate has largely focused on fishing rights, but the significance of EEZs extends far beyond fisheries.

An EEZ, together with the continental shelf beneath it, involves substantial resources and rights beyond fishing alone, Liu said.

Liu argued that Japan and the Philippines should have consulted all relevant stakeholders before opening negotiations over their overlapping maritime areas. Based on publicly available information, however, Taiwan was not consulted prior to the talks, a development that has raised concerns among Taiwan's academic, media, and intellectual communities, he said.

He noted that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' initial response surprised many experts.

Liu said several associations and NGOs have already urged the government to take a much firmer position, particularly in safeguarding the sovereignty of the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan's official name).

According to Liu, Taiwan's muted response created an opening for Beijing.

"Because our government did not respond strongly from the very beginning, China stepped in and claimed that if Taiwan's government is not protecting itself, China would protect Chinese sovereignty," he said.

A potential 'new normal'

Liu argued that China's actions could become increasingly routine.

"If our government has not done enough to protect our sovereignty, I do believe this 'new normal' will emerge," he said.

China's Ministry of Transport announced on June 6 that it had launched a maritime traffic law enforcement operation in waters east of Taiwan.

Liu said the key question now is whether similar operations will be repeated in the future. If Taiwan fails to effectively defend its sovereignty and maritime rights, he said, China's operational footprint around Taiwan could continue expanding.

Gray-zone activities

Legislator and retired ROC Navy admiral Chen Yeong-kang (陳永康), another organizer of the 2026 TTX, stated that China's use of coast guard and maritime law enforcement vessels to assert control over disputed waters constitutes a classic gray-zone tactic.

Chen noted that Beijing is increasingly combining coast guard patrols with broader gray-zone operations and military exercises around Taiwan.

"This has become the new normal," Chen said, warning that the trend would place "tremendous pressure against Taiwan" and underscore the need for stronger self-defense capabilities and societal resilience.

Communication channels

On the diplomatic front, Chen argued that Taiwan should continue maintaining communication channels with neighboring countries and all relevant stakeholders despite the limitations it faces in international participation.

He emphasized that peace in international politics often depends on sustained dialogue, including with competitors and potential adversaries.

As an example, Chen pointed to continued communication between US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Communication with your rivals is just as important as it is with your friends," Chen said.

Need for accurate maritime maps and strategy

Chen also told TCN that although Taiwan enacted legislation governing its EEZ and continental shelf claims in 1998, government agencies have long lacked an integrated "strategically operational picture."

He said ministries responsible for domestic affairs, foreign affairs, defense, economic affairs, and cross-strait relations have yet to establish a unified set of official maritime maps and operational references defining Taiwan's maritime rights and jurisdiction.

If Taiwan hopes to negotiate maritime issues with Japan or the Philippines in the future, Chen argued that it must first present a complete and detailed maritime claim, including official baselines, territorial seas, EEZ boundaries, continental shelf claims, and precise geographic coordinates.

Such information, he said, is essential for international negotiations and the protection of the ROC's sovereignty.