Xi's Pyongyang visit signals China's bid to reassert Korean Peninsula clout, expert says

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) paid a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) for the first time in seven years in a bid to reassert Beijing's influence over the Korean Peninsula, a Taiwanese expert said.

The visit

During his visit, Xi noted that 2026 marks the 65th anniversary of the China-DPRK Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, describing bilateral relations as standing at a "new historical starting point."

Xi said he and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had reached consensus on strengthening high-level exchanges, deepening strategic communication, expanding practical cooperation, and enhancing people-to-people ties.

Xi added that both countries would work together to advance their respective socialist causes and promote the high-level development of China-DPRK relations.

Kim echoed the message, saying the two leaders had agreed to further advance bilateral ties with "new contemporary connotations" in response to changing circumstances.

Kim said they exchanged views on international and regional issues of mutual concern and expressed confidence that the meeting would accelerate the development of the traditional DPRK-China friendship while contributing to regional and global peace and stability.

Notably, neither leader mentioned the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in their public remarks. Instead, both focused on strengthening strategic coordination, expanding cooperation, and reinforcing the ideological and political foundations of bilateral relations.

Strategic implications

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, told TCN that Xi's first visit to North Korea in seven years can be interpreted on three levels: reaffirming China's leadership role in Korean Peninsula affairs; countering the deepening security cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea; and strengthening Beijing's bargaining position ahead of Xi's anticipated diplomatic engagements with Washington later this year.

Wang noted that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has rapidly expanded since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. 

While Beijing welcomes closer Moscow-Pyongyang ties as a means of strengthening the anti-US camp, Wang stated, it also worries that North Korea could become overly dependent on Russia or trigger instability in the region.

"As a result, this state visit carries important implications for consolidating China's leading role in Korean Peninsula affairs," Wang said.

Following US President Donald Trump's visit to China in May, a White House fact sheet stated that Trump and Xi had "confirmed their shared goal to denuclearize North Korea."

According to Wang, such language is highly sensitive and difficult for Pyongyang to accept. 

He noted that Xi made no mention of denuclearization during his visit to North Korea, adding that Beijing deliberately avoided the issue to prevent friction with Pyongyang and maintain stability in bilateral relations.

Wang also argued that the visit was partly intended to counter the growing security cooperation among the US, Japan, and South Korea. 

In recent years, military coordination and security cooperation among the three countries have continued to deepen, and Beijing is seeking to demonstrate its influence and balancing capability in Northeast Asia through closer engagement with North Korea, Wang added.

China may also seek to use the North Korean issue as an important bargaining chip in its strategic competition with the US, Wang said. 

By drawing international attention back to developments on the Korean Peninsula, Wang noted, Beijing could partially divert attention away from tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

Tumen River access

In an interview with Radio Taiwan International (RTI), Liou To-hai (劉德海), a professor in the College of International Affairs at National Chengchi University, suggested that one of Xi's key objectives during the visit was to secure China's access from the Tumen River to the Sea of Japan.

Liou noted that although northeastern China is geographically close to the Sea of Japan, direct maritime access has long been constrained by the border region shared by Russia and North Korea. 

He said Beijing and Moscow have agreed to accelerate efforts to resolve the issue, while China has signaled its willingness to provide substantial financial support for infrastructure development in the area.

According to Liou, Beijing hopes that a jointly implemented China-Russia-DPRK "Tumen River Development Project" could eventually provide China with direct access to the sea through the Tumen River estuary.

Wang indicated, however, that significant obstacles remain before a stable trilateral cooperation mechanism among China, Russia, and North Korea can be established. 

Each country has its own interests, and Pyongyang may be reluctant to see Beijing and Moscow discussing Tumen River issues that directly affect North Korean interests without its full participation, Wang said.

Nevertheless, Wang said that if trilateral cooperation on the Tumen River were to advance successfully, it could help integrate Chinese, Russian, and North Korean geopolitical, energy, and military resources, creating a new dynamic in the competition between continental and maritime powers.

Such developments could also increase the linkage between Taiwan Strait tensions and Northeast Asian security issues, further complicating the regional security environment, he added.

Wang noted that if Chinese naval or coast guard vessels were eventually able to enter and exit the Sea of Japan freely through the Tumen River, it would pose a significant challenge to Japan and the US-Japan alliance's forward defense posture.

"In that scenario, the strategic pressure faced by Japan could actually be greater than that faced by Taiwan," Wang said.