Taiwan experts offer diverging verdicts on Cheng Li-wun's Washington debut

Kuomintang (KMT) Chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) returned to Taiwan on June 16 after concluding her visit to the United States, with Taiwan experts offering differing assessments of the trip's significance and achievements.

Cheng's assessment of the visit

At a press conference following her return on June 17, Cheng said her meetings in Washington and interactions with US government officials proceeded in accordance with the established practices for visiting Taiwanese political figures and were completed smoothly.

Cheng stated that Taiwan does not want to become "the next Ukraine" and that the majority of Taiwanese people do not want military conflict across the Taiwan Strait. 

Restarting cross-Strait dialogue and exchanges, she said, aligns with the expectations of the international community.

She said the purpose of the trip was to engage in candid and transparent communication with Taiwan's most important ally, the US, regarding the KMT's positions and policy proposals.

According to Cheng, the outcomes of her meetings with leading US universities, prominent scholars, think tanks, members of Congress, and overseas Taiwanese communities exceeded expectations. 

In replying to media questions about special defense budget, Cheng said that the KMT has long championed defense indigenization and remains strongly committed to defense capabilities and resilience, but accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of violating basic legislative principles and allowing procurement scandals to fester. 

She said she had told US counterparts that the KMT, as the largest opposition party in the legislature, is eager to establish a direct communication channel with Washington to better understand US professional assessments and expectations regarding Taiwan's actual defense needs.

Results exceeded expectations

KMT Central Standing Committee member and former legislator Lee De-wei (李德維), who was a key member of Cheng's delegation, told TCN that expectations for the visit had initially been low, particularly because Cheng had traveled to China to meet Xi Jinping (習近平) before visiting the US.

However, Lee said the May summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping generated interest among US think tanks and political circles, contributing to a more positive reception than anticipated.

Lee said Cheng's message to the US differed fundamentally from that of the ruling DPP.

According to Lee, the DPP has long argued that heightened cross-Strait tensions and resistance to China serve US interests, whereas Cheng advocates stable and peaceful cross-Strait relations while maintaining US leadership in preserving stability in East Asia. 

He said this narrative attracted significant attention from American audiences.

Cheng's break from tradition 

Lee argued that Cheng broke from the traditional model of Taiwanese politicians visiting the US. Rather than merely seeking to reassure Washington, she presented new ideas and policy approaches, providing US policymakers with fresh perspectives for consideration, Lee added.

He added that Cheng also emphasized during the trip that pursuing cross-Strait peace does not require sacrificing Taiwan's self-defense capabilities.

"Chair Cheng successfully prompted US stakeholders to rethink the framework for peace and stability among the US, China, and Taiwan," Lee said.

Based on his observations, Lee said that a majority of US think tank experts and political figures remain influenced by perceptions of the China threat. 

However, he added that developments following the Trump-Xi summit, including President Trump's views regarding Taiwan independence and the risk of war, have also shaped debate in Washington.

Cheng's political objectives

Chang Yuan-hsiang (張元祥), an adjunct professor at Soochow University, told TCN that Cheng's trip had several objectives: strengthening ties with overseas Taiwanese communities, expanding political networks and fundraising channels, clarifying the KMT's pro-US and China-engagement positions to think tanks, and communicating support for defense procurement to US lawmakers.

Chang argued that Cheng's most important political goal was to achieve "balance" by addressing criticism that she was overly pro-China following her April meeting with Xi Jinping during a visit to China.

Chang said Cheng largely accomplished her planned objectives, though the trip fell somewhat short of broader public expectations.

Diverging assessments

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, offered a more skeptical assessment, arguing that the trip generated more publicity than substantive achievements.

Wang told TCN that Cheng's visit was relatively lengthy but lacked major breakthroughs capable of attracting significant attention from US political leaders or the media. 

As a result, the focus of the trip became diluted, Wang said.

He noted that compared with previous visits by KMT chairpersons and other senior Taiwanese political figures, Cheng did not appear to receive unusually high-level treatment or secure symbolic diplomatic achievements.

Wang said public attention remained focused on whether Cheng would meet senior US national security officials and whether such arrangements had been altered at the last minute. 

The resulting political disputes, he argued, distracted from the message she hoped to deliver.

Impact on US-China-Taiwan relations

Wang said Cheng sought to promote a message of peace but failed to provide sufficient details regarding how such peace could be achieved.

Compared with President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) argument that "peace is secured through strength," which Wang said is broadly consistent with current US strategic thinking, Cheng did not clearly explain the foundations upon which peace should be built.

"Is peace achieved through negotiations, exchanges, or some other mechanism?" Wang asked. "Even negotiations require corresponding strength and an equal footing."

As a result, Wang said US officials may remain skeptical of Cheng's peace-centered narrative.

At the same time, Wang emphasized that Washington would continue cooperating with Taiwan regardless of whether the KMT or DPP governs in the future, while noting that the KMT still needs to provide greater clarity regarding its China policy to alleviate concerns in the United States.

Cheng needs to build political momentum

Chang said that while major political figures naturally attract attention from both Washington and Beijing, Cheng remains the leader of an opposition party and has yet to undergo the electoral tests associated with holding national office.

For that reason, Chang said Cheng is still some distance away from becoming a significant "place to stand" or strategic pivot in trilateral US-China-Taiwan relations.

He suggested that the key turning point will be Taiwan's 2028 presidential election. 

If opposition parties successfully coordinate and Cheng emerges as either a presidential contender or a kingmaker, Chang said, she could potentially become a more influential figure in managing relations among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei.

2026 election

Taiwan will hold local elections in late 2026, followed by a presidential election in 2028, both of which are expected to shape the island's political landscape.

Lee argued that while the DPP has traditionally benefited electorally from emphasizing resistance to China, Cheng is leading the KMT with a platform centered on the "1992 Consensus" and opposition to Taiwan independence as a means of achieving peaceful dialogue.

The 1992 Consensus refers to a 1992 understanding between Taipei and Beijing that there is only one China, but each side may interpret what "China" means. The “China” recognized by Taipei is the Republic of China (ROC).

As a result, Lee said voters in the 2026 and 2028 elections will face a choice between "confrontation and dialogue" or "war and peace" in managing cross-Strait relations.

Wang, however, said Cheng's US trip is unlikely to significantly affect the 2026 local elections, which will primarily focus on local issues and the strengths of individual candidates. 

Chang shared a similar view, arguing that the visit's influence on local elections will likely be minimal because national-level foreign policy issues rarely have a decisive effect on local voting behavior.

2028 election

Nevertheless, Wang said the visit could still carry political significance when viewed through the lens of the 2028 presidential race.

He noted that Cheng has increasingly cultivated an image as a politician capable of engaging both senior Chinese leaders and US counterparts, potentially enhancing her political visibility and positioning her for future national ambitions.

"I do not think she would rule out running for president herself," Wang said.

Although the visit did not generate major diplomatic gains and may even have involved what some viewed as a relatively cool reception from parts of the US side, Wang said it nevertheless helped strengthen Cheng's personal political brand and could improve her prospects should she seek higher office in the future.