China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test over the Pacific Ocean was intended to showcase both its conventional and nuclear military capabilities, while also serving broader strategic and political objectives, according to Taiwanese analysts.The testAccording to China's state-run Xinhua News Agency, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy test-launched a submarine-launched strategic missile into the Pacific Ocean. Beijing described the launch as part of its annual military training program, saying relevant countries had been notified in advance. It said the test complied with international law and common international practice and did not target any specific country or objective. China's military posted images of the JL-3 and JL-2 SLBMs on its official X account following the July 6 missile test. (X, China Military Bugle) On the day of the launch, Taiwan's National Security Council Secretary-General Wu Jau-shieh (吳釗燮) said on X that the missile was a JL-2 SLBM, calling the launch a provocation that undermined stability in the Indo-Pacific.Defense Minister Koo Li-hsiung (顧立雄) confirmed on July 8 that the missile was a JL-2, saying the Ministry of National Defense had fully monitored the launch through joint intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and multiple intelligence channels.Chinese state media did not disclose the missile model used in the test.During a legislative interpellation on July 8, an MND official said the missile had been launched from waters off Guangdong Province and that the submarine was surfaced rather than submerged during the launch.A senior defense official also told Taiwanese media that the military had received intelligence indicating missile would be launched from two separate locations, but only one launch took place.The official said the reason remained unclear and cited possible explanations including equipment malfunction, safety restrictions within the launch area, or efforts to prevent sensitive technical data from being exposed.Multiple objectivesSu Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), told TCN that the PLA Navy's missile test served both military and political purposes.“On the military side, Beijing sought to demonstrate both its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities, strengthening its deterrence posture and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy," Su said. "Politically, it also serves to divert domestic attention from China's internal economic and social challenges."Su said China has been steadily developing both conventional and nuclear forces in recent years with the goal of establishing a comprehensive "dual deterrence" capability."By integrating conventional military power with nuclear forces, Beijing aims to enhance its political coercive power and discourage other countries from intervening in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict," he said.Su added that China is simultaneously grappling with military restructuring and growing economic imbalances.Su said that although China's exports continue to generate a massive trade surplus, domestic consumption remains weak and employment quality has deteriorated."Against this backdrop, Beijing may also be using military demonstrations to shift public attention away from domestic problems," Su said. A Chinese submarine takes part in a training exercise. (China Military Online) Demonstrating a nuclear triadFormer Kuomintang (KMT) legislator and retired Republic of China Army Lieutenant General Wu Sz-huai (吳斯懷) wrote in a commentary that the SLBM test demonstrated that China had achieved a nuclear triad capability and effectively served as a public declaration of that capability.Wu explained that a nuclear triad refers to a country's ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, strategic bombers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.Combined with longer missile ranges, he said, the capability significantly strengthens China's second-strike capability, allowing it to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent even after absorbing a first strike.Wu also argued that China has developed a continuous at-sea deterrent, enabling its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines to remain deployed throughout the year.Possible technical complicationsCommenting on reports that China had originally planned missile launches from both the Bohai Sea and the South China Sea but ultimately carried out only one, Su said the two bodies of water serve as strategic "bastions" for China's ballistic missile submarines.Operating within these protected waters allows China's strategic submarines to remain under the cover of land-based air power and other military assets, reducing the risk of foreign anti-submarine forces interfering with their operations, he said."Conducting SLBM launches from these relatively secure waters helps ensure the survivability of China's strategic submarines while strengthening the credibility of its nuclear deterrent," Su said.As for why only one launch was carried out, Su said the most likely explanation was a technical problem affecting the northern launch area. However, he added that Beijing may also have decided to cancel one of the launches at the last minute for political reasons after receiving diplomatic protests from other countries.Diplomatic backfireSu described the missile test as another example of China's use of gray-zone tactics.He noted that under international practice, ballistic missile launches are typically notified at least 24 hours in advance. Since China is not a party to the relevant notification arrangements, its limited advance notification nevertheless generated international concern."Although Beijing intended to demonstrate military strength, the operation may ultimately produce a diplomatic backfire," Su said.He noted that the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Japan all expressed serious concern over the launch. Even the Solomon Islands, one of China's diplomatic partners, voiced objections, he added.According to Su, China's show of force may ultimately strengthen unity among democratic countries."Some of the divisions that had emerged among US allies following President Donald Trump's return to office could instead narrow as countries become more aligned in responding to China's military behavior," he said. A Chinese PLA Navy submarine heads toward a designated sea area during a maritime training exercise. (China Military Online) Taiwan's responseSu said Taiwan occupies a critical position in the Indo-Pacific security architecture and should closely monitor international reactions to China's military activities.More importantly, he argued, Taiwan must accelerate efforts to strengthen its own defense capabilities."Only by possessing credible self-defense capabilities can Taiwan gain greater strategic leverage and a stronger voice in regional security affairs," Su said. "That remains the country's highest priority."