Strategic balance intact despite US carrier move, but experts urge Taiwan to watch closely

Recent US military shifts in the Western Pacific have drawn attention, but Taiwanese experts said the US-China military balance along the First Island Chain remains broadly unchanged, while Taiwan should watch for increased Chinese gray-zone activity. 

Recent developments

The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 13 that the USS George Washington would leave the Pacific for the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln. 

The move has temporarily left the Western Pacific without a deployed US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

NBC 7 San Diego reported the same day that the carrier’s redeployment had raised questions about US military readiness and strategy in the Pacific.

Meanwhile, US Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, who was traveling through Southeast Asia, described the Trump administration’s approach toward China during an Aug. 13 virtual press briefing as “strong and clear, but quiet.” He said the policy focused on “quietly, relentlessly increasing deterrent strength and capability,” while pairing it with carefully considered rhetoric.

On Taiwan, Colby said Washington’s position remained to maintain the status quo and the promotion of strategic stability and a stable regional balance of power.

An Aug. 14 commentary published by Breaking Defense estimated that, at the current pace, the number of publicly reported US transits through the Taiwan Strait during the second Trump administration could fall to about 14 — roughly 50 percent fewer than during Trump’s first term and 56 percent fewer than during the Biden administration.

“If America’s presence in one of the world’s most contested waterways is quietly fading, the strategic ramifications could be serious,” the article said.

No sudden shift in the Western Pacific

Huang Chieh-cheng (黃介正), a professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, told TCN that US military deployments in the Pacific would naturally be affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

However, Huang said the military balance between the US and China along the First Island Chain was unlikely to change dramatically overnight, particularly as US allies in Asia have increased defense spending and strengthened their military capabilities.

The temporary absence of a US carrier strike group from the Western Pacific, he said, does not mean the US lacks contingency plans or surge capabilities.

While military strategy often involves exploiting an adversary’s retreat or fatigue,  Huang said the broader domestic, political and security circumstances facing both China and the US make an irrational military confrontation unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, expressed a similar view. He told TCN that US defense strategy does not amount to a withdrawal from Asia, but rather a shift toward a denial-deterrence posture centered on the First Island Chain.

Under this approach, Wang said, Washington expects allies to act as security partners rather than simply as protected states. The temporary absence of a US carrier from the Indo-Pacific should therefore not be interpreted as a US strategic retreat, he added.

US approach toward China

Wang said Colby had already made clear in a recent speech in Manila that the US aims to preserve a favorable regional balance of power while preventing any single country from dominating Asia.

Washington is building denial capabilities alongthe First Island Chain, Wang said, in an approach that can be summarized as “strong, clear but quiet.” The US is sending unambiguous strategic signals while advancing deployments and security cooperation in a practical, low-profile manner.

US deterrence against China should not be assessed solely by whether an aircraft carrier is deployed in the Indo-Pacific or by the annual number of Taiwan Strait transits, Wang said.

Beyond carriers, he noted, the US military retains a range of capabilities, including land-based anti-ship missiles, submarines and unmanned systems. It also maintains close security cooperation with Japan, the Philippines and Australia, while US forces in Japan remain in place.

For this reason, Wang said, the frequency of US warship transits through the Taiwan Strait carries mainly symbolic rather than substantive military significance.

Taiwan's security

Huang said Washington’s increasing focus on homeland and Western Hemisphere security has become a broader trend in US national security strategy, prompting Asian allies and partners to pursue military-strengthening measures of their own.

A phased reduction in US military deployments along the First Island Chain in the Western Pacific would naturally raise concerns about Taiwan’s security, Huang said, but it would not necessarily weaken the overall regional military posture.

A possible political and psychological opening

Still, Wang said the temporary absence of a US carrier from the Western Pacific could create an exploitable “window of opportunity” for Beijing in political and psychological terms.

China could increase exercises by the aircraft carriers Liaoning, Shandong and possibly Fujian in the Western Pacific, he said. 

Wang noted that Beijing could then use such deployments in its propaganda to create the impression that Chinese carriers remain active while US carriers have shifted to the Middle East, placing pressure on Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines while advancing cognitive warfare efforts.

Wang said Taiwan should monitor the possibility that Beijing could intensify gray-zone operations against Taiwan and around the First Island Chain while US resources are tied down by Middle East developments. 

Such activity, however, would not necessarily mean that China is preparing for immediate military action against Taiwan, Wang added.

Wang said potentially expanded activities, including China Coast Guard operations, patrols by military aircraft and naval vessels, deployments in waters east of Taiwan, research vessel surveys, and drone intrusions, would aim to test and gradually reshape the status quo around Taiwan.

If the intensity and frequency of such operations continue to rise, he warned, they could gradually create faits accomplis or become a new normal, with Beijing possibly seeking to maintain a higher level of pressure even after US carriers return to the Indo-Pacific.

Taiwan’s response

Huang said that in the long run, Taiwan's continued strengthening of its military combat capabilities is the inevitable path forward; in the short run, however, Taiwan must still "hide its capabilities and bide its time" as much as possible, using its own wisdom to defuse, cool down, and ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait, in order to buy more time for peace and carry out defense modernization.

Wang said Taiwan’s strategic priority should be to align with US strategic adjustments and strengthen its own denial capabilities within the First Island Chain.

Taiwan should increase defense spending, reinforce anti-ship and air-defense capabilities, develop unmanned systems, expand ammunition stockpiles and improve the resilience of its command, control and communications systems, he said.

Wang added that Taiwan must demonstrate to its partners that it retains the ability to resist and defend itself even without a nearby US carrier deployment, and that Taipei should also broaden security cooperation beyond the existing Taiwan-US framework toward a wider First Island Chain security network, while preserving room for strategic cooperation with Japan and the Philippines.

Wang further cautioned Taiwanese society against overinterpreting or amplifying Chinese narratives that portray US carrier movements as evidence of an American withdrawal from Asia.

Wang said Taiwan must respond clearly and firmly to any increase in Chinese gray-zone activities to prevent Beijing from turning sustained coercion into a new regional normal.