Experts expect Taiwan to feature in Trump-Xi meeting, but no major US policy shift

As US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) are expected to meet again next week, Taiwanese experts say Taiwan will likely be among the issues raised but caution against overinterpreting recent developments, as a major shift in Washington's Taiwan policy remains unlikely.

Taiwan-related issues draw attention before summit

Ahead of Trump and Xi's expected Sept. 23 meeting, several Taiwan-related reports have drawn attention.

Japan's Kyodo News reported on Sept. 14 that Beijing had asked Washington to hold off on any new Taiwan arms sales before the talks, or Xi would postpone his planned visit to the United States.

Meanwhile, the US think tank Defense Priorities published a report on Sept. 10 urging Washington to gradually shift its military focus in Asia from the First Island Chain to the Second, while potentially avoiding direct intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict.

The report said Washington's long-standing policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan is no longer sustainable, with its risks now outweighing potential benefits. It called for an explicit policy of nonintervention and urged the Trump administration to rapidly withdraw the roughly 500 US military personnel reportedly stationed in Taiwan for training purposes.

NOWNEWS reported on Sept. 15 that the first two of Taiwan's newly purchased F-16Vs arrived in Hawaii on Aug. 21 but have remained there for more than two weeks, reportedly due to a nearby typhoon. The aircraft would normally stop there for at least a day before continuing to Guam for insignia removal ahead of onward delivery to Taiwan.

The two jets reportedly taxied toward the runway on Sept. 7 but returned to the apron and have yet to reach Taiwan.

Reading the signals

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, told TCN that the timing of the reports was unusual and that their underlying purpose remained unclear.

Wang said a Xi visit to the US would normally involve long-term planning by officials on both sides and was unlikely to be fundamentally altered by a single arms-sales issue.

If Washington were to trade away arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for a visit by China’s leader, Wang said, it would be “a highly irrational approach.” He urged caution in assessing such claims, saying it could not be ruled out that one side was seeking to increase its bargaining leverage or even disrupt a meeting between the two leaders.

Juichou Richard Hu (胡瑞舟), a retired major general and deputy director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies, told TCN that Taiwan is indeed a highly sensitive issue in US-China relations and that Beijing has consistently opposed US arms sales to Taiwan. 

However, if Beijing were to publicly demand that the US refrain from arms sales to Taiwan by a specific date or Xi would refuse to visit Washington, Hu said, it would appear politically immature and inconsistent with normal diplomatic practice.

The two sides may have an informal understanding to avoid actions that would visibly provoke the other before the summit, Hu said. He added that Washington may handle the timing of any Taiwan arms-sales announcement cautiously as Trump hopes to host Xi, without abandoning arms sales or altering its basic position on Taiwan.

Hu said Xi is expected to reiterate Beijing's "one China" position, call for Washington's adherence to the "one law and three joint communiqués" framework, and argue that Taiwan arms sales should be limited to defensive weapons before being gradually phased out. 

Washington's response will hinge on the broader US-China relationship, he said, with the Trump administration likely to avoid provocative summit steps if both sides seek cooperation, while still weighing congressional views, defense-industry interests and Indo-Pacific strategic needs.

Taiwan likely to be raised

Wang said the Taiwan issue is unlikely to be fully set aside during Xi's US visit, with Beijing likely to seek red lines on military cooperation and arms sales, though he does not expect Washington to make political or diplomatic concessions seriously harmful to Taiwan.

Hu offered a similar assessment, saying the Trump administration is accustomed to handling China through negotiation and strategic bargaining. Taiwan may come up as one of the issues discussed, but major concessions that would change US policy toward Taiwan are unlikely.

Renewed debate over US nonintervention

Regarding the Defense Priorities recommendation for an explicit US policy of nonintervention in a possible Taiwan Strait war, Wang said it is important to distinguish between government policy and internal think tank debate, since differing views have long existed in Washington. 

Such arguments, he said, do not necessarily translate into policy, nor do they mean the US has decided to abandon Taiwan or substantially alter its approach.

Wang called the report's proposal to withdraw US training personnel from Taiwan over casualty risks mistaken and overly simplistic, noting the US and Taiwan could sustain training and exchanges through other channels even with a partial withdrawal. The same security logic, he said, would apply to US companies and personnel operating in Taiwan, making full withdrawal neither practical nor meaningful.

Hu offered a similar view, saying the mainstream US policy community still broadly recognizes Taiwan's strategic value as a key source of leverage for Washington in dealing with Beijing, one the Trump administration should understand clearly. 

He cautioned, though, that Defense Priorities, while not among Washington's most influential think tanks, reflects a strand of US opinion questioning whether Washington should bear excessive military costs for Taiwan, which has no formal diplomatic ties or mutual defense treaty with the US.

Experts’ recommendations

Wang said Taiwan cannot ease US concerns over the cost of defending the island through one-time defense-spending boosts alone, but must show sustained, institutionalized investment instead. 

Beyond budget size, he said, Taiwan should strengthen military education and training, combat capability and war-reserve stockpiles, while building a security architecture that goes beyond US arms sales to include public security, intelligence, coast guard capabilities, drones, communications and critical infrastructure for greater resilience. 

Externally, Wang said Taiwan should expand its security partnerships beyond the US to Japan, the Philippines, Australia and European democracies. 

In addressing US doubts, he said Taiwan should avoid emotional reactions and instead consistently frame Taiwan Strait peace as a matter of "shared interests" with Washington. He stressed that it concerns not just Taiwan's survival but also US economic interests, Indo-Pacific influence and regional order, and that supporting Taiwan protects America's own strategic and economic stakes rather than imposing a one-way cost.

Hu offered another approach, saying Taiwan should pursue deterrence and peace simultaneously, enhancing self-defense capabilities and societal preparedness while avoiding unnecessary provocations and working to ease cross-strait tensions, since focusing solely on military preparations without such efforts could gradually push Taiwan toward the brink of conflict. 

Civilian exchanges cannot replace defense preparedness, he said, but broader exchanges could raise the costs of conflict and reduce the risk of miscalculation."

F-16V delivery delay

Both Hu and Wang said the delay in the F-16Vs’ delivery to Taiwan was unlikely to be related to the Trump-Xi meeting.

Hu said the two aircraft, part of a procurement program Taiwan has already paid for and Washington has already approved, are unlikely to be held up by a US-China leaders' meeting. 

A trans-Pacific F-16 ferry flight requires aerial refueling, stopovers and transfer arrangements, he said, and regional weather, including typhoons, can also affect the delivery schedule.

Wang said the aircraft's continued stay in Hawaii should not be read as a deliberate US decision to delay delivery ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, citing insufficient evidence for such a causal link.

A trans-Pacific flight inherently involves weather conditions, aerial refueling, maintenance inspections and logistical coordination, he said, and Hawaii's weather has also been unstable recently.