Taiwan in focus after September Trump-Xi summit, but experts see no major US policy shift

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has concluded a three-day visit to the United States that included a second meeting this year with US President Donald Trump and renewed focus on Taiwan, with Taiwanese experts saying they see no clear signs yet of a major shift in Washington's Taiwan policy.

Taiwan issues

Xi arrived in the US on Sept. 23 for a state visit and held his second face-to-face meeting of the year with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Sept. 24.

According to a readout released by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Xi told Trump that Beijing hoped the United States would "adhere to the correct position of opposing 'Taiwan independence'" and "handle the Taiwan question with caution," which he said would help lay a solid foundation for China-US strategic cooperation and bilateral relations.

When reporters asked Trump and Xi after their meeting whether Taiwan had been discussed, neither responded. As of press time, the US side had not publicly confirmed Beijing's account of the Taiwan-related portion of the talks.

US Ambassador to China David Perdue said in a CNBC interview on Sept. 25 that US policy toward Taiwan had not changed.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (official name for Taiwan) responded to Beijing's account on Sept. 25, saying the People's Republic of China (PRC) has no right to represent the people of Taiwan. 

The ministry reiterated the government's position that the ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other, that Taiwan's sovereignty belongs to its people, and that Taiwan's future can only be determined democratically by its people.

Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Chih-chung (吳志中), speaking at a seminar hosted by the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) on Sept. 26, stated that Taiwan does not face an issue of declaring independence.

"Taiwan does not have a Taiwan independence issue. Our country is called the Republic of China. We have all the elements of a sovereign and independent state. Why would we need to declare Taiwan independence?" Wu said.

Revisiting World War II

Trump and Xi both invoked the history of US-China cooperation during World War II during Xi's visit, highlighting the two countries' wartime alliance as part of their broader message about bilateral ties.

Ahead of their meeting, Trump referred to the Flying Tigers, the American volunteer aviators who assisted China in its war against Japan, and invoked the phrase "gung ho," saying the US Marine Corps still uses the Chinese-derived expression associated with the spirit of working together.

At the state dinner, Trump also spoke of China's thousands of years of history and tradition, referring to figures ranging from Sun Tzu to Sun Yat-sen (孫中山).

Sun Yat-sen is officially recognized as the "Father of the Nation" by the ROC.

Xi likewise mentioned the wartime relationship in his remarks, saying at the White House arrival ceremony that "Chinese and Americans fought shoulder to shoulder against fascist aggression."

He returned to the theme during his state dinner remarks, recalling how the Chinese and American peoples had fought together against Japanese militarist aggression more than 80 years ago.

US-China-Taiwan relations

Huang Kwei-bo (黃奎博), a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University, told TCN that the information released publicly by Washington and Beijing has not been entirely symmetrical, with Beijing's readout explicitly mentioning Taiwan while Washington has not publicly denied that the issue was discussed.

Huang said it would be highly unlikely for Xi to travel such a long distance to meet Trump without raising Taiwan, an issue Beijing considers a core concern, adding that with Beijing having publicly stated Xi discussed Taiwan and Washington not denying it, it is reasonable to conclude the issue was indeed part of the talks.

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, told TCN that although Beijing raised Taiwan during the Trump-Xi meeting, publicly available information does not indicate that Washington made the kind of political statement Beijing had sought.

Asked whether the summit suggested that Beijing and Washington had reached a new understanding on Taiwan, Huang remained cautious, describing the situation as "an old issue, but possibly with some incremental new developments."

Huang said Taiwan is not a new subject between Trump and Xi, given Beijing's repeated conveyance of its opposition to "Taiwan independence" and its cross-Strait positions to Washington, and that the more important question following the summit is whether the two sides reached any new but limited understandings beyond their established positions.

Wang assessed that the publicly known outcomes of the summit suggest that its substantive negative impact on Taiwan was limited. Citing Perdue's post-summit remarks, Wang said there has so far been no clear indication that Washington shifted its Taiwan policy as a result of the meeting.

Wang said Taiwan had analyzed a range of possible scenarios ahead of the summit, and some of the more negative possibilities that had drawn attention before Xi's visit did not materialize.

For example, he noted that the historical elements of Xi's US itinerary did not further highlight Taiwan-related documents such as the Aug. 17 Communiqué or the three US-China joint communiqués.

US midterm elections could be key

Huang said Trump-Xi interactions after the US midterm elections could ultimately prove more significant than the latest summit.

Before the midterms, Huang said, a major adjustment to US policy toward the Taiwan Strait could generate additional political controversy domestically. He therefore sees little incentive for Trump to pursue a dramatic policy change at this stage.

The political environment could be different after the midterms, Huang said, citing the Republican Party's electoral performance and Trump's progression into the latter half of his second term, given that Trump cannot seek another term under the US Constitution and his domestic political calculations and policy room later in his term could differ from those he faces today.

If Trump and Xi meet again after the midterms, Huang said, that meeting could therefore carry greater significance and provide a clearer indication of whether substantive changes are emerging in US-China relations or Washington's approach to the Taiwan Strait.

Different readings of the Trump-Xi summit

Huang said the summit was not only intended to address concrete policy issues but also to further consolidate the personal relationship and mutual trust between Trump and Xi, and should therefore not be viewed solely as a bilateral summit expected to produce major policy breakthroughs.

"A lot of it may simply be about consolidating the relationship and reinforcing mutual trust," Huang said.

Wang said both sides made efforts during the summit to give the other leader sufficient political room and respect, reflecting the domestic political needs facing both Trump and Xi.

From Trump's perspective, Wang said, the US president needs to demonstrate to American voters that his negotiations with China are producing results, with the midterm elections approaching giving him incentive to secure tangible outcomes from Beijing that he can present domestically and use to bolster political support.

Xi also faces domestic political considerations, Wang said, including internal Chinese Communist Party politics and future leadership arrangements, with the US visit offering him an opportunity to demonstrate his ability to engage the US president on equal footing and portray another high-level US-China summit as a political achievement.

Wang said the relatively smooth conclusion of the summit was therefore largely built on the fact that both leaders had something they wanted from the meeting, though he assessed that Beijing made comparatively more concessions in the substantive negotiations.

Competing historical narratives

Regarding the repeated references by Trump and Xi to US-China cooperation during World War II, including the Flying Tigers, Huang said the remarks reflect Beijing's continuing use of wartime history in constructing its narrative toward the US.

Huang noted that the Flying Tigers and US-China military cooperation during World War II occurred when the ROC government represented China and was the government that worked with the US against Japan.

Placing that history directly within the framework of today's People's Republic of China-US relationship while overlooking the political and historical circumstances of the period, Huang said, amounts to a "decontextualized" historical narrative.

Huang argued that the history and institutions of the Republic of China constitute important assets for Taiwan's international engagement. 

In his view, the current Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government has "hollowed out" aspects of ROC history and institutions, weakening what he sees as an important historical and narrative resource for Taiwan's engagement with the US and other countries.

Wang said the Trump administration may have an incomplete understanding of the Republic of China's historical role during World War II, which could make some US public rhetoric more susceptible to adopting historical framing promoted by Beijing.

Wang also noted that Chinese officials again emphasized the two countries' shared struggle against fascism during the summit. Introducing Japan into historical narratives surrounding contemporary US-China talks, he said, risks creating unnecessary links between wartime history and present-day US-China-Japan relations.