Taipei campaign surge puts Shen Pao-yang’s “Yang Current” in the political spotlight

As Taiwan gears up for local elections, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayoral nominee Shen Pao-yang (沈伯洋) has emerged as an unexpected dark horse, narrowing his polling deficit against incumbent Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) amid a surge in grassroots campaigning. Experts note that Shen’s targeted campaign playbook is now producing broader spillover effects across neighboring races, making its durability a critical dynamic to watch.

Taipei mayoral race

A Taipei mayoral poll released on Oct. 20 by the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association found Shen leading Chiang with 50.3% support to 33.3%. Compared with the association’s September survey, Shen was up 9.8 percentage points, while Chiang was down 8.4 points. 

An earlier poll released by TVBS on Oct. 8 showed Chiang with 49% support and Shen with 41% among respondents intending to vote. The gap had narrowed to eight percentage points from 28 points in May. 

Alongside his grassroots "Yang Current" movement, which transformed street-level night market walks and temple visits into a formidable ground game, Shen has narrowed a double-digit deficit in TVBS polling and taken the lead in the association’s latest survey.

How the movement differs from past campaigns

Street-level or grassroots surges driven by candidates are a feature of Taiwan’s election culture. Examples include the “A-Bian Wave” that followed Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) 1994 Taipei mayoral campaign, the “Ko-P Wave” sparked by Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) in 2014, and the “Han Wave” that propelled Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) in the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election.

Tu Sheng-tsung (杜聖聰), chair of the Department of Radio and Television at Ming Chuan University, told TCN that Shen’s "Yang Current" diverges from earlier populist phenomena like the "Han Wave" by pairing intensive local shoe-leather campaigning with data-driven microtargeting and visual branding.

Tu noted that Shen’s team leveraged compact venues like night markets and temples to manufacture dense crowd visuals, subsequently knitting these localized stops into a citywide movement through targeted digital communications and visual storytelling.

Compared with campaigns that rely mainly on a candidate’s instincts and traditional polling to assess the race, precise data analysis and messaging may give different political camps distinct capabilities and campaign rhythms, Tu said.

Chen Fang-yu (陳方隅), a political scientist at Soochow University, told TCN that Shen’s surge has been fueled by a wide array of specialized policy proposals that effectively engage niche voter blocs traditionally overlooked by the major parties.

Chen highlighted Shen’s "Mayor, Listen Up" forums as a key driver of his momentum, arguing that their interactive, question-and-answer format subverts traditional top-down campaign mobilization to give voters a direct stake in the dialogue.

Unlike the "Han Wave" or Ko Wen-je’s "Little Grass" phenomenon — both driven largely by charismatic sloganeering and broad narratives — the "Yang Current" is uniquely propelled by substantive policy debates and programmatic arguments, Chen noted.

Shen has presented detailed platforms spanning historical heritage, cultural policy, urban transit, athletics, and tourism while largely eschewing classic populist tropes, Chen observed. Chen said that, by contrast, movements like the "Han Wave" and Ko Wen-je’s campaigns leaned heavily on anti-establishment grievances centered on institutional failure — a rhetorical hallmark shared by populist insurgencies worldwide.

A test of staying power

Commenting on the poll showing Shen in the lead, Tu said a single poll can generate discussion but cannot, on its own, determine who is ahead. The result will depend mainly on how credible the poll is and whether Shen’s momentum can hold through Nov. 28.

Tu said Shen’s campaign still faces a test of its staying power. If the "Yang Current" continues to grow at its current rate, it could approach a new tipping point in about three to four weeks, Tu added.

According to Tu's digital sentiment tracking, the share of Taipei election discussion mentioning the "Yang Current" peaked at 26.9% in September’s third week before falling to 10.8% in October’s first week. Positive sentiment toward Shen accounted for 36.3% of movement-related posts, compared with 26.1% of posts about him overall.

The Taipei City Council’s recess on Oct. 23 marks a pivotal turning point for the mayoral race, Tu observed. Chiang is expected to take a leave of absence to campaign full-time, unleashing the Kuomintang’s deep-rooted grassroots networks and organizational machinery across the capital to steadily consolidate support as election day nears, Tu said.

Consequently, the campaign dynamic post-Oct. 25 warrants close observation, Tu noted. Whether the KMT can successfully marshal its disparate resources to mount a disciplined defensive front could prove decisive in altering the trajectory of the race.

Spillover effects

Highlighting the movement's expanding geographic reach, Chen noted that the "Yang Current" is resonating well beyond its base — signaled by the viral spread of the slogan "Our mayor is Shen Pao-yang" across Taiwan, the popularization of its "little droplets" supporter imagery, and high demand for signature campaign ribbons.

Shen’s digital footprint has expanded at an exceptional clip, driven by a series of cross-format media appearances that have drawn massive viewership across diverse political demographics, Chen noted. A sit-down interview with veteran media personality Wang Wei-chung (王偉忠), for instance, racked up more than four million views — a degree of cross-aisle penetration Chen described as virtually unprecedented for a mayoral contender.

Shen was interviewed by Wang on Sept. 10 and by broadcaster Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) on Oct. 7, attracting strong viewership and listenership.

Tu said Chiang still has the advantages of incumbency, but a shift in the Taipei race could also affect nearby areas, including New Taipei and Keelung.

Political momentum inherently dissipates with geographic distance, Tu observed. He said that while jurisdictions bordering Taipei are already feeling the direct gravitational pull of the capital's campaign energy, any broader spillover from the "Yang Current" is likely to attenuate as it moves toward southern constituencies.

A shift in public image

In Taiwan politics, Shen has long been associated with national security issues, including “resisting China and protecting Taiwan” and expertise in cognitive warfare. Beijing has also listed him as a “stubborn Taiwan independence” figure.

Chen said Shen’s background as a China-policy researcher may help him create a contrast when he discusses everyday issues, prompting voters to take a closer look.

Noting that Taiwanese voters historically prioritize everyday pocketbook issues over cross-strait relations in local contests, Chen noted that emphasizing Beijing policy often backfires in municipal campaigns, citing the DPP’s heavy losses in 2022.

Chen said Shen can move between hard-edged national security issues and more everyday concerns because of his experience and depth of knowledge.

By replacing traditional top-down political choreography with direct citizen engagement, Shen has successfully positioned himself as an unencumbered alternative for voters frustrated by persistent shortcomings in Taipei’s municipal administration, Chen said.

Implications for the 2028 election

An upset loss by Chiang in Taipei would severely compromise the Kuomintang’s national strategic roadmap, Tu noted. 

Should the pan-blue and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) coalition lose the capital alongside collateral defeats in New Taipei, Keelung, and Yilan driven by the "Yang Current," Tu said, it would upend opposition calculations for the 2028 presidential race — potentially clearing the path for the DPP to reclaim unified control across the central and local government.

Retaining control of both Taipei and New Taipei would preserve essential strategic maneuverability for the opposition camp, Tu noted. However, surrendering either stronghold — above all, populous New Taipei — could severely hem in Chiang’s future political runway and disrupt the opposition’s nomination calculations for the 2028 presidential ticket.