Democratic takeover of Congress leaves US Taiwan policy largely intact, experts say

Democrats’ victory in both chambers of the US Congress is unlikely to alter Washington’s policy toward Taiwan, according to Taiwanese experts, who note the midterm results may even lessen the risk of the island being used as a geopolitical bargaining chip.

US midterm elections

On election night, President Donald Trump said he was willing to accept the midterm results and signaled an openness to bipartisan cooperation.

Labeling the US elections a "domestic affair," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) on Wednesday (Nov. 4) said Beijing remains committed to working with Washington to manage differences, expand cooperation, and build a stable bilateral relationship.

Asked whether the US midterms could affect a stalled US$14 billion arms package, Defense Minister Koo Li-hsiung (顧立雄) said Thursday (Nov. 5) that US congressional support for Taiwan’s defense remains bipartisan, adding that Taipei will stay in close contact with lawmakers and US defense officials to keep arms sales on schedule. 

US foreign policy

Huang Kwei-bo (黃奎博), a professor in National Chengchi University’s Department of Diplomacy, told TCN that Trump, confronting post-election domestic pressures, could lean on his trademark unpredictability to either pursue global stability or divert attention by confronting an easier foreign target like Cuba.

If Trump moves to stabilize relations with China and Russia, both adversaries could exploit the opening to demand key concessions, Huang said. Whether a Democratic-controlled Congress would endorse such an approach remains doubtful, with bipartisan support for closer ties with Moscow especially uncertain, he added.

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in National Cheng Kung University’s Department of Political Science, told TCN that US foreign policy will see little fundamental shift, noting that while Trump's legislative window will narrow once Democrats take over Capitol Hill on Jan. 3, 2027, the president retains expansive executive authority over national security.

Wang pointed out that although lawmakers can push back through oversight and legislation, overriding a presidential veto remains a formidable hurdle requiring a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate.

Regardless of which party holds the gavel on Capitol Hill, entrenched strategic competition between Washington and Beijing will keep US–China policy firmly on its current trajectory, Wang noted.

Wang noted that Democratic control of Congress will not impede Trump’s direct diplomacy with leaders like Xi Jinping (習近平), Kim Jong Un or Vladimir Putin, as presidential authority to conduct foreign summits requires no legislative approval.

Wang added that a Democratic-led Congress could aggressively scrutinize the terms of any future US–China agreement, with its formal powers depending on the type of agreement. 

US-China relations

Looking ahead, Wang said Trump may use diplomatic negotiations to secure tangible results and demonstrate his leadership to US voters, while also laying the groundwork for a Republican successor.

Past summits between Trump and Xi Jinping suggest Washington seeks Chinese purchases of US goods and access to rare earths, while Beijing seeks tariff relief and fewer tech restrictions. Huang said this dynamic leaves bilateral economic leverage largely unchanged.

To offset his midterm setback, Trump is likely to push Beijing for tangible negotiating wins, including large Chinese purchases of US agricultural products, broader Chinese market access for American firms, or a revised trade pact, Wang said.

Whether the election defeat pushes Trump toward a harder line on Beijing remains uncertain, Wang noted, adding that the president may instead see wider leeway to compromise if it yields immediate, high-profile diplomatic breakthroughs.

A Democratic majority in Congress

Huang noted it is premature to judge whether congressional Democrats will push to block any thaw with Beijing or instead caution that an overly confrontational stance could damage American trade and economic interests.

While Beijing may have previously seen Trump as a way to secure concessions on Taiwan, Wang said the midterm outcome effectively closes that window, as a vigilant Congress would forcefully check any White House concessions driven by Chinese pressure.

Beijing’s approach to Washington could face greater resistance if congressional Democrats take a harder line on China or move to derail Trump’s cautious diplomatic overtures, Huang assessed.

Beijing is unlikely to exploit Washington’s divided government to aggressively pressure Trump, Huang said, noting that overplaying its hand could trigger a backlash from the president or prompt Democrats and the White House to close ranks against China.

Beijing will likely continue to avoid provoking Trump and instead seek to influence him directly, Huang said.

Adopting an initial wait-and-see posture, China could ultimately offer concessions to win Trump’s support if Congress begins to obstruct bilateral diplomacy, Huang noted.

Wang said a Democratic majority could help counter growing calls in the US to abandon Taiwan. 

Fringe voices in the "MAGA" movement calling for Washington to abandon Taiwan are set to lose influence following the Democratic congressional takeover, Wang said, pointing to a legislative balance tilting decisively back toward Taipei.

Arms sales to Taiwan

Both experts agreed the midterm results will have little bearing on US arms sales to Taiwan, emphasizing that constraints on US production are a major factor in delays to existing orders. 

Wang noted that a Democratic takeover of Congress will do little to hasten stalled weapons shipments to Taipei, citing strained US production lines, prolonged testing cycles, and competing commitments in other foreign conflicts.

Huang pointed out that Trump has openly characterized the proposed US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a diplomatic bargaining chip in talks with the Chinese leader.

Taiwan's legal status and outlying territories like Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu remain off the negotiating table for now, according to Huang. 

Facing a Democratic-led Congress that could respond to concessions to Beijing with legislation, Huang said, Trump is expected to exercise caution rather than trade away the island's interests.