Experts see Taiwan staying out of possible US-China-Russia talks

A possible trilateral meeting among the leaders of China, the United States and Russia on the sidelines of this year’s APEC summit could produce statements of intent, but Taiwan is unlikely to be discussed, Taiwanese experts said.

The summit

The 2026 APEC summit is scheduled to take place Nov. 18–19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. Taiwan will be represented at the gathering by Acer Group founder and honorary chairman Stan Shih (施振榮), the Presidential Office said.

The US, China, and Russia are working to arrange a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit that could focus on the role of artificial intelligence in nuclear command and control, with the war in Ukraine and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula largely off the table, the South China Morning Post reported exclusively on Wednesday (Nov. 11).

Disagreements over format and agenda have cast doubt on whether a proposed trilateral summit will happen, with Beijing pushing for tightly scripted, prepared statements while Washington favors a more open-ended exchange, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier on Nov. 9.

Strategic implications

Chen Ping-kuei (陳秉逵), a professor in National Chengchi University’s Department of Diplomacy, told TCN that if the meeting goes ahead, it could signal some form of reconciliation between the US and Russia, with potential implications for the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Even if the meeting does not take place, Chen said, the three countries would have little to lose, as they could still hold bilateral meetings.

Ma Chun-wei (馬準威), an assistant professor of strategic studies at Tamkang University, told TCN that the meeting was likely to go ahead, with a low chance of being canceled at short notice.

Russia has repeatedly expressed interest in a trilateral meeting, while US President Donald Trump has responded favorably and China has not ruled it out, Ma said. 

With all three sides remaining open to the idea, the meeting could produce broad statements of intent rather than detailed agreements, he added.

Taiwan unlikely to be discussed

Both experts said Taiwan was unlikely to be on the agenda.

Chen said previous US statements had indicated that Taiwan should not be a topic. 

Given China's role as APEC host, the proposed trilateral gathering does not provide an appropriate venue for addressing bilateral disputes between Beijing and Washington, Chen noted. Even if Chinese officials sought to raise the issue of Taiwan, he added, the US would be unlikely to entertain it in that setting.

With Moscow largely indifferent to cross-strait tensions and both Beijing and Washington weighed down by more urgent bilateral issues, introducing Taiwan into the three-way summit would needlessly derail the agenda, Ma noted.

Two earlier summits between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping (in Beijing in May, where Trump reiterated he does not support Taiwan independence, and in Washington in September, where both sides focused on strategic stability) have largely set the baseline for US-China ties, Ma said.

US arms sales to Taiwan appear to be delayed for now, Ma said, adding that Beijing may not know what more it wants from Washington or be able to secure better terms.

Taiwan could still be raised during a separate bilateral meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), with Beijing expected to urge Washington to tread cautiously on cross-strait affairs, Ma noted. 

However, he added that in the wake of the US midterm elections, key decisions regarding arms sales to Taiwan may no longer rest entirely in Trump's hands.

What Taiwan should watch

If the trilateral meeting takes place, Chen said Taiwan should watch for any change in US policy toward the war in Ukraine after the meeting, including Washington’s support for Kyiv and the military assistance it provides.

The US would likely seek to minimize any impact the meeting might have on cross-strait relations or security in the Taiwan Strait, he added.

Ma said Taiwan should also watch for any unexpected move by Beijing during the APEC summit in Shenzhen, although he considered the likelihood low.

If Trump and Xi meet on the sidelines, Taiwan should watch for any new progress, Ma said. Trump’s response to his party’s performance in the midterm elections is difficult to predict, he added.

The upcoming APEC summit could provide critical clues regarding Trump’s strategic approach for the remainder of his term, Ma noted. 

His demeanor and negotiating positions during the talks could help clarify whether he intends to pursue a more assertive posture or adopt a more subdued stance on the world stage, he added.