China's Fujian aircraft carrier has Achilles' heels, say experts

China’s commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier signals a significant escalation in Beijing’s push to challenge US naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific region; however, the carrier is not without its limitations, Taiwanese experts have suggested.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) as an inseparable part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to unify it.

On Nov. 7, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that the country’s first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, the Fujian, held a commissioning and flag-presenting ceremony on Nov. 5 in Hainan, China. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) attended the ceremony and inspected the ship. 

Hsia Kuang-ya (夏光亞), a non-resident fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) and a retired ROC Navy rear admiral, told TCN that the strategic significance of Fujian lies mainly in challenging US maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific, breaking through the first-island-chain blockade, and strengthening the PLA Navy’s blue-water combat capability. 

He said this poses new challenges for security in the Taiwan Strait and the regional military balance, including increasing pressure on Taiwan and enhanced capabilities for a sea and air blockade, as well as a deterrent effect on neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, and on the United States.

Hsia, in the future, said the Fujian, may conduct combat-oriented training together with other carriers and improve the PLA’s overall joint operations capability through integrated land-sea support.

Weak spot

The Fujian has a displacement of about 80,000 tons and uses a conventional (non-nuclear) propulsion system. It carries China’s latest advanced carrier-based aircraft, including J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters, KJ-600 airborne early warning and command aircraft, and Z-20 helicopters.

Hsia noted that because the Fujian relies on conventional propulsion rather than nuclear power, it will have a heavy dependence on replenishment vessels for fuel and supplies, for both the carrier itself and its air wing. Given the ship’s large tonnage, Hsia estimated that at least two to three supply ships would be required to sustain its operations.

Hsia added that Taiwan still has a fighting chance against the Fujian. 

Since China lacks military bases in the Pacific, once the US Pacific Fleet intervenes from Guam, the situation could turn into a protracted maritime engagement. Taiwan’s best opportunity, he said, would be to target the Fujian’s logistical supply lines, and striking its replenishment ships would be equivalent to hitting the fleet’s strategic center of gravity.

Role in conflict

With the Fujian entering service, China now fields three carrier strike groups. 

Hsia said that if a conflict broke out between China and Taiwan, China’s three aircraft carriers could be deployed with one near the disputed Diaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea, one near the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea, and one to Taiwan’s east in the western Pacific.

He said all three carriers would likely stay 250 to 300 nautical miles from Taiwan—far enough to remain outside the range of Taiwan’s shore-based anti-ship missiles—while still forming an encirclement around the island.

Under this arrangement, Hsia added, the Fujian would most likely be deployed to Taiwan’s east in the Pacific, where it would confront US carrier groups.

Dr. Chieh Chung (揭仲) of the INDSR shared a similar view. He told TCN that if China were to invade Taiwan by force, Fujian would be unlikely to appear in the Taiwan Strait because that area falls within the range of Taiwan’s shore-based supporting fire. 

The most probable location for the carrier, he said, would be east of Taiwan.



Range is the key

Dr. Chieh pointed out that while it would be difficult for Taiwan’s military to counter the Fujian, it is not impossible.

Chieh said, before the Fujian can reach its tactical position east of Taiwan, it must pass through either the Miyako Strait or the Bashi Channel, and intercepting it during passage would present an opportunity, as both waterways are relatively narrow. 

However, Chieh noted that this opportunity may diminish once China’s fourth aircraft carrier enters service in the future.

Chieh added, Taiwan could employ F-16 fighters armed with air-launched anti-ship missiles, or submarines approaching from below to attack. Both options, however, carry high risks because the range of Taiwan’s current anti-ship missiles is shorter than the Fujian’s air defense envelope, Chieh said.

Chieh pointed out that Taiwan’s Air Force has previously sought to acquire the AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) from the United States. 

If Washington agrees to sell it, Taiwanese strike aircraft would not need to penetrate as deeply into hostile airspace, improving their survivability and giving Taiwan a better chance to counter the Fujian, Chieh suggested.

According to Lockheed Martin, the AGM-158C has a range greater than 200 nautical miles (about 370 kilometers).

One to one and a half years before full operational capability

According to China Military, a website sponsored by the China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Fujian began its first at-sea live training on November 18, operating as part of a carrier strike group (CSG) to test its Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) and the performance of its carrier-based aircraft.

The US Naval Institute News (USNI News) reported that the Fujian’s training likely took place in the South China Sea.

Hsia noted that the Fujian is at least a year or more away from achieving Full Operational Capability (FOC). 

He added pilots and crews will need time to adapt to the Fujian’s catapult launch system, which is different from the ski-jump takeoff method employed by the Liaoning and Shandong.

Dr. Chieh Chung stated that after about a year of training, the Fujian will likely reach combat readiness. 

At that point, China will have three operational carrier strike groups. The expected deployment model, he said, would be one carrier undergoing maintenance in port, one operating and training in the South China Sea, and one conducting routine patrols in the western Pacific east of Taiwan, he added.

In other words, China will maintain at least one carrier strike group continuously deployed in the western Pacific or the South China Sea at any given time, said Chieh.

The Indian Ocean

When asked by TCN whether the Fujian could eventually operate in the Indian Ocean, Hsia Kuang-ya said that it would depend on China’s strategic objectives in the region, but he believes there is a high likelihood that the Fujian will enter and operate there in the future.

Hsia noted that China’s only overseas military base is currently in Djibouti, Africa, but considering Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, it is very likely that the Fujian will make frequent appearances in the Indian Ocean in the coming years.



Significant gap remains

The Fujian is China’s third aircraft carrier, and Beijing’s shipbuilding efforts are continuing at a steady pace.

Recent satellite imagery suggested that China is already constructing a fourth carrier, which is very likely to be nuclear-powered.

Hsia pointed out that a considerable gap still exists between the PLA and US navies in terms of carrier capability. 

Hsia noted that the US Navy has over a century of carrier warfare experience, with rigorous and frequent training. China still has a significant way to go to match that level of proficiency, he added.

However, Hsia emphasized that the mere presence of an aircraft carrier is itself a deterrent. When the Fujian patrols the South China Sea or East China Sea, supported by the PLA Air Force and land-based rocket forces, it will still possess a home-field advantage that poses a credible threat to US carrier strike groups.

He added that once China’s fourth carrier becomes fully operational, a cross-strait conflict would place major pressure on US naval deployment, since the US would likely need to match China’s carrier presence in the western Pacific.