Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy tiptoes on Taiwan, emphasizes deterrence

The US 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) states that deterring a conflict over Taiwan is a priority.

The 2025 NSS, the United States’ official document outlining its key security threats and priorities, has highlighted Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor production, its strategic location, and potentially severe economic consequences as reasons to deter a military conflict over the island with China.

The report notes that Taiwan provides direct access to the Second Island Chain, a chain of islands in the western Pacific, including the Marianas and Guam, that forms part of a US defensive perimeter and splits Northeast and Southeast Asia into two distinct theaters. "Given that one-third of global shipping passes annually through the South China Sea, this has major implications for the US economy," the document adds.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) an inseparable part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve unification.

Former director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, stated in 2023 that the US security agency knew that China's President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to conduct a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027. The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, said in May this year that China's military was preparing to invade Taiwan every day, and that it could do so imminently.

The NSS says preventing a conflict over Taiwan by maintaining a military advantage is a priority. The report states that it “does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.”

Wordplay

Former Director-General of Taiwan's National Security Bureau Lee Shying-jow (李翔宙) wrote in a UDN op-ed that the latest NSS shows a subtle shift in wording compared to editions under previous US administrations.

In the 2022 NSS report, the Biden administration expressed its position on Taiwan by stating that it “opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side." 

Lee said that the latest NSS shows the US has shifted from active opposition to passive non-support, and that its commitment to defend Taiwan has weakened.

Dr. Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), Director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), told TCN that the US has clearly stated its bottom lines, saying it does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and will oppose any attempt to seize Taiwan.

Su said that President Trump is expected to visit China next April, but that the Trump administration's position on Taiwan is unlikely to change.



Positioning China

Unlike the 2017 NSS from President Trump’s first term and the Biden administration’s 2022 NSS, the 2025 NSS does not label China a “revisionist power.”

Dr. Su said that the tone of the 2025 NSS is relatively softer, but beneath this softer language lies what he likened to Theodore Roosevelt’s philosophy of “speak softly and carry a big stick.”

Su said that the wording of the 2025 NSS suggests a containment posture toward China. As China shifts from a land power to a maritime power, Taiwan’s geographic position becomes especially crucial, he explained.

Regarding the report’s references to collective defense and the need to “deny any attempt to seize Taiwan,” Su said these statements make Washington’s intentions clear.

Greenbacks

Yang Yung-ming (楊永明), a professor at Taiwan's Chinese Culture University’s College of Social Sciences, wrote in a UDN opinion piece that the report emphasizes the need for the US to rebalance its economic relationship with China.

Dr. Su said that Taiwan is one of the report's central concerns.

He noted that if Taiwan were to fall under China’s control, the scenario outlined in the document, where a hostile power could dominate the South China Sea, impose transit fees, or shut down maritime routes at will, could quickly become reality.

The report stresses the need for Taiwan to strengthen military capabilities to deter aggression along the First Island Chain and makes clear that the US military cannot, and should not have to, do this alone, he added.

Su pointed out that the United States clearly expects Taiwan to strengthen its own self-defense capabilities.

For example, during his confirmation hearing on Oct. 7 this year, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of War for East Asia John Noh said he strongly supports Taiwan allocating up to 10 percent of its GDP to defense, according to Breaking Defense.

Lee Shying-jow said, “The United States has never ruled out Taiwan as a key risk point in the region. Because Taiwan is both the most vulnerable and the most critical target within China’s regional ambitions, the new U.S. strategy raises its security profile, but it also comes with a very high cost.”

Lee noted that the US has included Japan and South Korea in the framework of responsibilities for a potential Taiwan crisis. He added that it is not difficult to foresee Taiwan’s future security obligations extending beyond the US to also involve Japan, South Korea, and even the Philippines.



Tips for Taiwan

Professor Yang stated that in responding to the Trump administration’s national security strategy, Taiwan must exercise even greater caution. He emphasized that Taiwan needs to fully understand the logic behind “America First” and the US focus on key national interests.

Dr. Su noted that since this NSS explicitly includes the phrase “deny any attempt to seize Taiwan” in an official document, Taiwan should seize the opportunity to strengthen its national defense.

He added that if Taiwan can secure legislative and public support for increased military spending and demonstrate its commitment to defense, US–Taiwan ties will grow stronger.

Su also suggested that with US backing, Taiwan should maintain a low profile while leveraging its geographic advantages to help neighboring countries recognize that their security is linked to Taiwan’s and that they share common geopolitical interests.

He cited the energy supplies of South Korea and Japan as an example. The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) reported that over 95 percent of Japan’s crude oil and 65 percent of South Korea’s comes from the Middle East, with much of this oil transported through the Taiwan Strait.

Su warned that if Taiwan were to come under Chinese control and these maritime lifelines were disrupted, it would severely affect both regional stability and the global economy.