Former AIT director sounds alarm: Cross-Strait tensions far more unstable now

Former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director William A. Stanton has warned that Taiwan faces a far more unstable cross-strait status than during his tenure, citing escalating Chinese military drills and intensifying domestic political divisions over defense policy.

In an exclusive interview with TCN and NOWNEWS, Stanton described China’s large-scale military exercises surrounding Taiwan as deeply troubling.

Cross-strait relations

Staton told TCN: “All of these military exercises surrounding Taiwan, I think this is very troubling,” and that China is “clearly practicing because one day they will be doing that for real.”

Since then–U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022 and prompted the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to launch military exercises in response, the PLA has conducted seven large-scale drills encircling Taiwan through the end of 2025. In the most recent exercise in late December 2025, the PLA’s designated drill zones even extended into areas within Taiwan’s territorial waters.

China regards self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province destined to come under Beijing's control, and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve what it calls "unification."

Stanton noted that the current cross-strait situation is “much more unstable” and “much more insecure” compared with when he was in office. 

He said Taiwan’s government and people should note that the United States has consistently sought to reassure Taiwan of its support.

While maintaining that Washington does not take sides on the cross-strait issues, Stanton reiterated that the US opposes any resolution through violence.

“The US has always preferred ambiguity in all things. I don't know if that's the right approach but it's become standard. The US doesn't take any sides in this issue,” Stanton said.

“We only want an amicable agreement to resolve the problem. In no case should violence be used,” he added.

However, that certain actions, such as Taiwan declaring formal independence, “might be a cause for war with China,” he said.

Special defense budget

The remarks come amid controversy over President Lai Ching-te’s (賴清德) proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) special defense budget for 2026–2033, aimed at strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

The proposal has been blocked in the legislature by opposition lawmakers from the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and has yet to proceed to committee review.

According to a report by Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA), on Jan. 22, 2026, current AIT Director Raymond Greene stated during a lecture hosted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) that “freedom is not free,” emphasizing that the US can assist its allies only if they are willing to help themselves.

On Feb. 6, KMT Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen (蕭旭岑) said in a radio interview that no matter how strong Taiwan–US relations may be, Taiwan must express its own position and that mutual respect is essential, adding that unconditional acceptance does not necessarily earn respect. He also commented that Greene’s rank was “only slightly higher than a section chief.”

In response, the US Department of State told CNA on Feb. 8 that under the Taiwan Relations Act, the AIT director serves as the US secretary of state’s representative in Taiwan, holds a rank equivalent to a chief of mission, and fully represents the US government, including its positions on Taiwan’s security. 

Stanton said the issue goes beyond internal politics, and the US has a vested interest in what happens to Taiwan — not only geo-strategically, but politically and in terms of shared values. “We support other democracies,” he said.

Based on his experience in Taiwan, Stanton said most Taiwanese are happy that the US maintains a presence here.

Reflecting on his time at AIT, Stanton said the KMT during his tenure was more moderate and constructive in handling cross-strait issues and arms sales.

“When I was there, the KMT was more moderate and more inclined to have meetings. They supported arms sales and did not oppose US arms sales,” he recalled.

Taiwan-US relations

Stanton emphasized that Taiwan continues to enjoy strong bipartisan support in the US Congress.

“Your biggest support is going to be in the Senate and the House of Representatives,” Stanton said.

He pointed to the PROTECT Taiwan Act, which passed the US House of Representatives by a near-unanimous vote, as a positive sign.

“It is very meaningful and impressive. It shows the US does care,” he said.

Stanton advised Taiwan to strengthen engagement with senior US officials and congressional leaders, particularly those who have historically expressed support for Taiwan.

He specifically suggested outreach to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, noting Rubio’s past support for Taiwan-related issues. 

He also urged Taiwan’s representative office in Washington to maintain close communication with top-level officials and provide accurate feedback to Taipei.