Classified ‘Overmatch’ report highlights US military vulnerabilities amid rising Chinese capabilities

A New York Times editorial cited a classified US report warning that Washington could lose a war with China over Taiwan.

The report, dubbed the “Overmatch” brief, is described by the paper as a multiyear Pentagon assessment of US military capabilities compiled by the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment and most recently presented to senior White House officials within the past year. It details China’s capacity to target US fighter aircraft, major naval vessels, and satellites, and outlines key vulnerabilities in the US military supply chain.

The NYT said the Overmatch brief shows that the Pentagon relies on costly, vulnerable weapons, even as rivals deploy cheaper, more advanced systems, and a decades-long erosion of America’s ability to fight a prolonged war against a major power.

The editorial urges the US to spend smarter, innovate faster, and drop outdated thinking. It also says the US cannot rely on its own industry alone and must invest more in defense production while working with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and Europe to counter China’s growing power.

Shifting US strategy

Hsia Kuang-ya (夏光亞), a non-resident fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) and a retired rear admiral in Taiwan's navy, told TCN that the NYT report suggests senior US strategic elites have realized that America’s high-end, expensive weapons systems can no longer counterbalance or offset the numerical advantages of China’s People’s Liberation Army along the First and Second Island Chains.

The ability to comprehensively defeat China, Hsia said, no longer exists.

The First Island Chain refers to the arc of US-aligned territories stretching from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines along China’s coast. The Second Island Chain lies farther east, running from Japan through the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, forming a deeper line of US military presence in the Pacific.

Hsia noted that the recently released 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) places the defense of the US homeland and the Western Hemisphere as America’s top priorities, and this represents a major post-Cold War shift in US foreign policy.

Hsia added that the 2025 NSS reflects significant strategic adjustments regarding China, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, assessing that the Chinese military is rapidly growing and that the US military may no longer be capable of unilaterally suppressing China. 

However, Hsia does not believe the US is abandoning the First Island Chain. 

He said Washington is urging Japan and South Korea to increase defense spending, coordinate joint responses, and allow greater US military access to ports, bases, and other infrastructure. Although Taiwan has primarily been asked to raise its defense budget, Hsia said these moves indicate that the US has not given up on the First Island Chain.

What if war breaks out over Taiwan?

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to bring the self-governed island under its control, by force if necessary. The former director of America's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) stated in 2023 that China's President Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive support but maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity over whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack. China's Ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng (謝鋒), said that Taiwan is the biggest potential flashpoint in US-China relations, according to the South China Morning Post.

Hsia Kuang-ya said the 2025 National Security Strategy and the Overmatch brief suggest that if a cross-strait conflict erupts, the US might focus on deployments, partnerships, and investments that strengthen resilience at home. He added that the US homeland and the Western Hemisphere are where American interests are most concentrated and threats are most direct.

However, Hsia also said the US military must maintain overwhelming military superiority so that if a conflict breaks out anywhere in the region, the US can intervene to stop it.

China could misunderstand the report

Former Taiwanese legislator and current Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Jason Hsu (許毓仁) told TCN that the Overmatch brief’s reported assessment that China could defeat the US could be misread in Beijing as a sign of wavering US resolve. It could also push the US to move faster to close gaps and strengthen deterrence, he added. 

Hsu said the US is more likely to move toward dispersed deployments, long-range strike, unmanned systems, and allied node-based support, rather than withdrawing from the Indo-Pacific.

Hsu said that the Overmatch brief is neither a war plan nor a shift in US-Taiwan policy. Rather, it is a regular Pentagon net assessment document designed to examine structural weaknesses in the US military under worst-case scenarios.

Hsu said the core issue revealed by Overmatch is not a lack of technological capability, but the US military’s overreliance on expensive, sophisticated, yet limited-number platforms. 

These systems could face serious challenges in wars of attrition, logistics, and industrial replenishment, Hsu added.

War games

The NYT's editorial quoted US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying that in Pentagon war games against China, the US loses every time. The article also wrote that "War games can be wrong; analysts sometimes overstate adversaries’ abilities."

Jason Hsu said Hegseth's remark should be read as highlighting vulnerabilities exposed under specific war-gaming assumptions, rather than as a prediction of how a real conflict would unfold.

The value of such assessments lies in reminding decision-makers that if forward deployment, base survivability, supply lines, and sustained munitions availability cannot be ensured, US advantages may not be fully realized, he added.

Hsia Kuang-ya said that war-game scenarios are often designed under very demanding conditions in order to identify current vulnerabilities in the US military, and to serve as a reference for improvements or investment priorities.

Overmatch in Taiwan

When asked about the Overmatch Brief, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Koo Li-hsiung (顧立雄), said that he is unable to verify its contents, Taiwan's TTV reported.

Koo said the newly released US National Security Strategy makes clear that peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific is a core US interest. He said the US must maintain deterrence through strength to ensure peace across the region.

He said that the US also hopes to work with other countries in the region, especially those in the First Island Chain, to achieve effective deterrence. Everyone should strengthen their own self-defense capabilities, and Taiwan, on the front line of the First Island Chain facing China’s threat, must of course further strengthen its self-defense, he added.

Jason Hsu said the United States isn’t looking for symbolic political statements from Taiwan, but real, practical capabilities.

He explained that the US may expect Taiwan to develop enough asymmetric and expendable defense systems to make the island a battlefield that cannot be taken quickly, thereby prolonging any conflict.

At the same time, Hsu noted, Taiwan would be more closely integrated into allied defense, industrial, and logistics networks, while strengthening its society and infrastructure, making it harder for China to achieve political goals quickly, even through military force.

Taiwan needs a National Security Strategy

Hsia Kuang-ya said that Taiwan faces a powerful opponent right across the strait, and that the situation is asymmetric in population, territory, economic size, and military strength. Because of this, Hsia said, it is unavoidable for Taiwan to strengthen defense spending, force development, and deterrence capabilities.

Hsia also noted that Taiwan needs a clear national security strategy, similar to the US National Security Strategy, which it currently lacks.

Hsia mentioned that both overinvestment and underinvestment in the defense budget are unwise. 

For a small country, he added, surviving in a tight strategic environment between two great powers, the US and China, is not about choosing sides, but about engaging the other side in peaceful dialogue under the guidance of a coherent national security strategy.